Predicting China's cultivated land resources and supporting capacity in the twenty-first century
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Yan, Yan; Zhao, Jingzhu; Deng, Hongbing; Luo, Qishan |
| 刊名 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND WORLD ECOLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2006 |
| 卷号 | 13期号:3页码:229-241 |
| 关键词 | China land use cultivated land supporting capacity food security |
| 英文摘要 | In recent years, China's cultivated land has been shrinking, a change which has become one of the potential challenges to national sustainable development and global food security. In our research, we have predicted China's cultivated land resources for the next 50 years, based on scrutiny of systematic data and analyses of the loss of cultivated land. We have also designed an indicator of cultivated land equivalent per capita (CLEPC) to assess the capacity of cultivated land to support our population. The results show that China's cultivated land will decline to a minimum of 113.31 million ha between 2001-2010, while cultivated land per capita will decline from 0.101 ha to 0.083 ha. After 2010, the area of cultivated land will begin to increase slowly to 118.98 million ha in 2050. However, cultivated land per capita will still decline to 0.079 ha between 2010-2030; after 2030, it will start to increase and reach 0.085 ha in 2050. In contrast to the total area and per capita area of cultivated land, the CLEPC will remain at 0.101 ha between 2001-2010, and then increase to 0.156 ha in 2050. Overall, there will be increasing stress on China's cultivated land during the next two or three decades. Although the supporting capacity of cultivated land may not decline obviously with improvement in agricultural technology and infrastructure, China has to make great efforts to reduce the loss of cultivated land and to improve its productivity to ensure food security in the near future. |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000239708200008 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.rcees.ac.cn/handle/311016/22796]  |
| 专题 | 生态环境研究中心_城市与区域生态国家重点实验室 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yan, Yan,Zhao, Jingzhu,Deng, Hongbing,et al. Predicting China's cultivated land resources and supporting capacity in the twenty-first century[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND WORLD ECOLOGY,2006,13(3):229-241. |
| APA | Yan, Yan,Zhao, Jingzhu,Deng, Hongbing,&Luo, Qishan.(2006).Predicting China's cultivated land resources and supporting capacity in the twenty-first century.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND WORLD ECOLOGY,13(3),229-241. |
| MLA | Yan, Yan,et al."Predicting China's cultivated land resources and supporting capacity in the twenty-first century".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND WORLD ECOLOGY 13.3(2006):229-241. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：生态环境研究中心
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。