Application and analysis of debris-flow early warning system in Wenchuan earthquake-affected area
文献类型:期刊论文
作者 | Liu, DL1,2,3; Zhang, SJ1; Yang, HJ1; Zhao, LQ4; Jiang, YH1; Tang, D3; Leng, XP1 |
刊名 | NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
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出版日期 | 2016 |
卷号 | 16期号:2页码:483-496 |
关键词 | debris flow prediction water-soil coupling mechanism system Wenchuan earthquake-affected area |
ISSN号 | 1561-8633 |
通讯作者 | 张少杰 |
英文摘要 | The activities of debris flow (DF) in theWenchuan earthquake-affected area significantly increased after the earthquake on 12 May 2008. The safety of the lives and property of local people is threatened by DFs. A physics-based early warning system (EWS) for DF forecasting was developed and applied in this earthquake area. This paper introduces an application of the system in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area and analyzes the prediction results via a comparison to the DF events triggered by the strong rainfall events reported by the local government. The prediction accuracy and efficiency was first compared with a contribution-factor-based system currently used by the weather bureau of Sichuan province. The storm on 17 August 2012 was used as a case study for this comparison. The comparison shows that the false negative rate and false positive rate of the new system is, respectively, 19 and 21% lower than the system based on the contribution factors. Consequently, the prediction accuracy is obviously higher than the system based on the contribution factors with a higher operational efficiency. On the invitation of the weather bureau of Sichuan province, the authors upgraded their prediction system of DF by using this new system before the monsoon of Wenchuan earthquake-affected area in 2013. Two prediction cases on 9 July 2013 and 10 July 2014 were chosen to further demonstrate that the new EWS has high stability, efficiency, and prediction accuracy. |
WOS标题词 | Science & Technology ; Physical Sciences |
类目[WOS] | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources |
研究领域[WOS] | Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources |
关键词[WOS] | CRITICAL RAINFALL THRESHOLDS ; SOIL COUPLING MECHANISM ; SHALLOW LANDSLIDES ; DURATION CONTROL ; REGIONAL-SCALE ; INITIATION ; SLOPE ; INTENSITY ; RUNOFF ; FAILURES |
收录类别 | SCI |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000373920100013 |
源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/14185] ![]() |
专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Key Lab Mt Hazards & Earth Surface Proc, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Chengdu Univ Informat & Technol, Coll Software Engn, Chengdu 610225, Peoples R China 4.CMA, Publ Meteorol Serv Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, DL,Zhang, SJ,Yang, HJ,et al. Application and analysis of debris-flow early warning system in Wenchuan earthquake-affected area[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,2016,16(2):483-496. |
APA | Liu, DL.,Zhang, SJ.,Yang, HJ.,Zhao, LQ.,Jiang, YH.,...&Leng, XP.(2016).Application and analysis of debris-flow early warning system in Wenchuan earthquake-affected area.NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,16(2),483-496. |
MLA | Liu, DL,et al."Application and analysis of debris-flow early warning system in Wenchuan earthquake-affected area".NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 16.2(2016):483-496. |
入库方式: OAI收割
来源:成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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