A nonlinear prediction of the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhang Q(张勤)
|
| 刊名 | ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS
 |
| 出版日期 | 1996-06 |
| 卷号 | 310期号:2页码:646-650 |
| 关键词 | chaotic phenomena-methods, data processing Sun, activity, sunspot numbers, prediction |
| ISSN号 | 0004-6361 |
| 产权排序 | 第一完成单位 |
| 通讯作者 | Qin, Z |
| 英文摘要 | The medium-term prediction of smoothed monthly sunspot numbers is examined on the basis of the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems in this paper. A local linear model is constructed using a technique called the inverse problem of chaotic dynamical systems, reconstructing the d-dimensional phase space, utilizing k neighbour points dosed to the current point in phase space on the basis of the achieved dynamical parameters of fractal dimension D and the largest Lyapunov exponent lambda(1) for the monthly mean sunspot numbers. The optimal parameters predicting monthly mean sunspot numbers, the embedding dimension d and the number of neighboring points k, are determined examining the mean error for the prediction of one time step ahead, to obtain an optimal nonlinear statistical model. To reduce the drop in the accuracy of the medium-term nonlinear prediction caused by chaotic behavior, the predictions for the later time are corrected or compensated by means of the largest Lyapunov exponent lambda(1) and the predictive error obtained by comparing the predicted with the observed values. The final results are obtained using the formula of the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers. Our predictions of 5 months ahead for the period from August 1989 to the present are compared with the observed values and the corresponding predictions given by SIDC. It is shown that this nonlinear predictive technique is feasible and has broad prospects. This technique can become a better candidate for medium-term prediction of the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers. |
| WOS标题词 | Science & Technology ; Physical Sciences |
| 学科主题 | Astronomy & Astrophysics |
| 类目[WOS] | Astronomy & Astrophysics |
| 研究领域[WOS] | Astronomy & Astrophysics |
| 关键词[WOS] | CHAOTIC TIME-SERIES ; STRANGE ATTRACTORS |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 原文出处 | http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1996A%26A...310..646Z |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:A1996UQ88200029 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/4037]  |
| 专题 | 云南天文台_其他 |
| 作者单位 | Yunnan Observaotry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O.Box 110, Kunming 650011, P.R. China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang Q. A nonlinear prediction of the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers[J]. ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS,1996,310(2):646-650. |
| APA | Zhang Q.(1996).A nonlinear prediction of the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers.ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS,310(2),646-650. |
| MLA | Zhang Q."A nonlinear prediction of the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers".ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS 310.2(1996):646-650. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：云南天文台
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