Verification of SPE probability forecasts at the Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC)
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Cui YanMei; Liu SiQing; ErCha, A.; Zhong QiuZhen; Luo BingXian; Ao XianZhi |
| 刊名 | SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES
 |
| 出版日期 | 2016 |
| 卷号 | 59期号:6页码:1292-1298 |
| 关键词 | Forecast verification SPE forecast SPE onset days Space weather forecasting |
| ISSN号 | 1674-7313 |
| 通讯作者 | Cui, YM (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Space Sci Ctr, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China. |
| 英文摘要 | In space weather forecasting, forecast verification is necessary so that the forecast quality can be assessed. This paper provides an example of how to choose and devise verification methods and techniques according to different space weather forecast products. Solar proton events (SPEs) are hazardous space weather events, and forecasting them is one of the major tasks of the Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC) at the National Space Science Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Through analyzing SPE occurrence characteristics, SPE forecast properties, and verification requirements at SEPC, verification methods for SPE probability forecasts are identified, and verification results obtained. Overall, SPE probability forecasts at SEPC exhibit good accuracy, reliability, and discrimination. Compared with climatology and persistence forecasts, the SPE forecasts are more accurate. However, the forecasts for SPE onset days are substantially underestimated and need to be considerably improved. |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/5447]  |
| 专题 | 国家空间科学中心_空间环境部 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cui YanMei,Liu SiQing,ErCha, A.,et al. Verification of SPE probability forecasts at the Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC)[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,2016,59(6):1292-1298. |
| APA | Cui YanMei,Liu SiQing,ErCha, A.,Zhong QiuZhen,Luo BingXian,&Ao XianZhi.(2016).Verification of SPE probability forecasts at the Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC).SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,59(6),1292-1298. |
| MLA | Cui YanMei,et al."Verification of SPE probability forecasts at the Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC)".SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES 59.6(2016):1292-1298. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：国家空间科学中心
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