基于生命周期分析的电动汽车环境影响及其转型风险评价方法研究
文献类型：学位论文
| 作者 | 孙赵鑫 |
| 学位类别 | 硕士 |
| 答辩日期 | 2015-05 |
| 授予单位 | 中国科学院研究生院 |
| 授予地点 | 北京 |
| 导师 | 施晓清 |
| 关键词 | 生命周期评价，环境影响，电动汽车，燃油车，汽车转型风险，Life cycle assessment, Environmental impact, Electric vehicle, Fuel vehicle, Auto transition risk |
| 其他题名 | Research on Life Cycle based Environmental Impacts of Electric Vehicle and the Assessment Method for the Transition Risk |
| 学位专业 | 生态学 |
| 中文摘要 | 汽车保有量的不断增加，在给城市交通带来巨大压力的同时，也引起了一系列严重的资源环境问题。为应对汽车消费导致的石油消耗和尾气排放问题，许多研究机构和汽车生产企业开始寻找传统燃油车的替代方案。以电动汽车为代表的新能源汽车开始成为各国交通工具转型的范式。 相对于传统燃油车，仅就行驶过程而言，电动汽车被认为较为环保，因为其具有化石能源消耗量低、能源利用效率高、行驶过程近乎零排放等优势。然而，从全生命周期角度来看，电动汽车存在污染转移的隐患，由传统燃油车向电动汽车的转型过程中可能带来一定的转型风险。系统全面地了解电动汽车全生命周期的环境影响以及汽车转型过程中可能产生的转型风险对科学有效地管理电动汽车及其产业可持续发展至关重要，尤其对我国当前正在逐步推动的燃油车向电动车转型具有重要的现实意义。为此，论文以北京市出租车电动化转型为例展开了 以下几方面的研究且取得了相应的成果： （1）基于生命周期评价（Life cycle assessment，LCA）方法，运用GaBi6（教育版）软件，选用CML2001 和EI99 影响评价模型，以北京市出租车转型为例，对电动汽车和传统燃油车全生命周期过程的环境影响进行定量化评价，并针对关键因素进行敏感性分析。识别了电动汽车全生命周期内在非生物资源消耗、全球变暖、臭氧层损耗及光化学臭氧合成等方面的环境优势及在酸化、富营养化、人体生态毒性、新鲜水生态毒性、海洋生态毒性等方面的环境隐患；明确了电力生产过程和动力系统生产过程（主要是电池生产）是控制电动车生态环境隐患的关键过程；得到了随着电池寿命、报废里程以及清洁能源比例的增加，电动汽车生命周期的环境影响逐渐下降、电动汽车相对燃油车的环境效益逐渐提高的规律。 （2）提出了汽车转型风险的概念，用它来表征汽车由燃油车向电动汽车转型后引起环境影响增加的可能性和程度。在探索LCA 与环境风险评价（Environmental risk assessment，ERA）方法结合方式的基础上，参考EI99影响评价方法框架，建立了基于LCA 结果的汽车转型风险评价模型，该模型包括3 大类（转型资源消耗风险、转型人体健康风险、转型生态系统质量风险）、6 小类（包括转型化石燃料消耗风险、转型矿物资源风险、转型呼吸系统损伤风险、转型致癌风险、转型酸化/富营养化风险、转型生态毒性风险）转型风险类型。 （3）以北京市出租车转型为例，运用构建的汽车转型风险评价模型辨识了北京出租车由燃油车向电动汽车转型后存在的转型风险类别、产生转型风险的主要污染物及其严重程度（用转型风险级别表征），分析了汽车转型风险随电力能源结构优化而变化的规律。 （4）基于电动汽车生命周期环境影响及其转型风险评价结果，从管理原则、相关政策与标准的制定、优化管理等3 个角度提出了电动汽车环境管理的对策和建议，为电动汽车的科学管理提供了参考。 |
| 英文摘要 | The increased vehicle ownership not only brings enormous pressure to the urban traffic, but also causes a series of serious environmental and natural resource problems. In order to deal with problems of petroleum consumption and exhaust gas emissions caused by automotive consumption, many research institutes and auto production enterprises began to search for alternatives of traditional fuel vehicles. New energy vehicles, represented by electric vehicles, have been transport transition paradigm among countries. Compared to traditional fuel vehicles, electric vehicles are considered to have advantages of lower fossil energy consumption, higher energy efficiency, zero exhaust emissions, ect. However, on the perspective of life cycle, there are hidden hazards of pollution shift of electric vehicles. The transition from traditional fuel vehicles to electric vehicles may create transition risks. Systematic and comprehensive understanding of life cycle environmental impacts of electric vehicles and possible transformed risks of vehicle transition is essential to scientific and efficient management and sustainable industrial development. And it will pose significant meanings for transition from fuel vehicles to electric vehicles which is being gradually promoted by Chinese government. Thus, this paper carried out the following aspects of study and the corresponding results are obtained: (1) Took the example of Beijing taxi transformation, contributed a life cycle assessment (LCA) model with GaBi6 software and comparative life cycle environmental assessment of electric vehicle and fuel vehicle by Life cycle impact analysis models of CML2001(Problem oriented) and EI99 (Damage oriented),which includes the environmental impacts of full life cycle, manufacture phase,use phase and end of life. The sensitivity analysis of lifetime mileage and power structure was also provided. The life cycle environmental advantages of electric vehicles in abiotic depletion potential, global warming potential, ozone layer depletion potential and photochemical ozone creation potential were idenfied, while the life cycle environmental hidden dangers of electric vehicles in acidification potential, eutrophication potential, human toxicity potential, freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity potential, marine aquatic ecotoxicity potential were also discovered; Electricity production process and power system production process ( battery production) were recognized as the key processes to control ecological and environmental hidden hazard; the change regularity of that with the increase of battery lifetime, lifetime mileage and proportion of cleaning energy, the impact of environmental impacts reduction per kilometer of electric vehicle is getting higher with respect to fuel vehicle were found. (2) Put forward the concept of auto transition risk, which characterizes the possibility and degree of the increasing of environmental impact caused by the vehicle transition from fuel vehicle to electric vehicle. Established an auto transition risk assessment on the basis of exploration the combining method of life cycle assessment and environmental risk assessment, and referring to the framework of EI99, a life cycle impact assessment model. The auto transition risk assessment model covers three general types (transition resource depletion risk, transition human health risk, transition ecosystem quality risk) and six subtypes(including transition fossil fuel depletion risk, transition mineral resource depletion risk,transition inorganic respiratory risk, transition Carcinogenic effects risk, transition acidification/nitrification risk, transition ecotoxicity risk ). (3) Took Beijing city taxi transition as an example, applyed the established auto transition risk assessment model to identify the transition risk types and pollutants exist and its severity(characterized by transition risk levels ) during the transition from fuel vehicle to electric vehicle, analyzed the change regularity of auto transition risk which change along electricity generation energy structure. (4) Put forward some countermeasure and advices in management principles, policies and standards, and management optimization based on the results of life cycle environmental impact and transition risk assessment results of electric vehicle. |
| 源URL | [http://ir.rcees.ac.cn/handle/311016/34373]  |
| 专题 | 生态环境研究中心_城市与区域生态国家重点实验室 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 孙赵鑫. 基于生命周期分析的电动汽车环境影响及其转型风险评价方法研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院研究生院. 2015. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：生态环境研究中心
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