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作者 | 杨东
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学位类别 | 博士
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答辩日期 | 2015-05
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授予单位 | 中国科学院研究生院
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授予地点 | 北京
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导师 | 杨建新
; 刘晶茹
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关键词 | 出口产品、碳足迹、生命周期评价、指数分解、灰色预测,export product, carbon footprint transfer, life cycle assessment, index decomposing, grey prediction
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其他题名 | Analysis of export products carbon footprint and policy response research━take polysilicon photovoltaic modules for instance
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学位专业 | 环境经济与环境管理
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中文摘要 | 改革开放以来,我国对外贸易迅速发展,目前已成为全球第一大出口国。对外贸易的高速增长一方面极大地拉动了我国经济的快速增长,另外一方面导致国内温室气体排放的大量产生。国内外能源结构和技术水平存在差异,伴随着大量产品的出口,国内产生了大量的温室气体排放。国外一方面消费中国生产的商品,一方面指责中国不承担温室气体减排义务。在此背景下,本论文以多晶硅光伏组件为研究对象,基于生命周期思想,提出了我国出口产品碳足迹分析及政策响应的方法框架。该框架整合多种出口产品碳足迹的分析方法,涵盖了出口产品碳足迹的概念、核算、驱动力分析、预测以及政策响应。论文主要内容如下:
(1)基于生命周期评价方法和动态物质流方法,建立了我国产品碳足迹的核算方法。该方法可以识别产品生产各个环节的原材料国内外来源以及背后碳足迹的来源和流量,为分析出口产品碳足迹的核算和分析奠定了方法的基础。
(2)应用产品碳足迹核算方法,建立了基于时间序列的涵盖我国能源、原材料和工业过程的基础碳足迹数据库。基础碳足迹数据库的建立有助于研究者从底层分析产品原材料的碳足迹的国内外分布,为精确核算近年来的产品碳足迹提供了基础数据。
(3)基于产品碳足迹核算方法和产品的贸易量建立了自下而上的出口产品碳足迹核算模型,该模型可以核算具体产品在出口产生的国内外的碳足迹。结合典型产品多晶硅光伏组件开展分析,结果表明我国出口多晶硅光伏产品国内碳足迹呈指数型增长。多晶硅光伏组件产品大量出口,在国内产生了大量的温室气体排放。
(4)基于出口产品碳足迹影响因素研究的复杂性和对数平均迪氏指数分解方法(LMDI)的优势,开展了我国出口产品碳足迹的影响因素分析研究。模型选取了经济、技术和贸易等三个大类的八种主要参数,作为影响出口产品国内碳足迹的重要因素进行分析。应用该模型分析多晶硅光伏组件产品,结果发现,目前影响我国多晶硅光伏组件出口产品国内碳足迹持续增长的最主要的因素是经济因素。
(5)基于出口产品碳足迹的特点和灰色预测方法,建立了我国出口产品碳足迹的预测方法。预测方法可以在获取有限的历史数据情况下,取得比较准确的预测结果,但是该预测方法对政策改变的抗干扰较差。以多晶硅光伏组件为例,研究发现 2014-2020年内我国光伏组件的出口规模因为受到政策的原因,出口规模将进入饱和期,伴随光伏产业的技术升级和节能减排的实施,我国光伏产业产品出口导致的国内碳足迹持续增长的情况在未来将会得到一定的控制。
(6)本文提出了出口产品碳足迹政策分析及优化方法,该方法可以结合具体出口产品,进行出口产品的政策优化分析,提出相应的产业和外贸政策优化建议。该方法框架对支持产品出口政策调整具有一定的科学意义和实用价值。本文分别从优化和完善国内碳足迹准入政策、加强技术创新、优化出口规模和出口结构方面给出了相应的建议。通过对多晶硅光伏组件出口产品碳足迹的分析,本文认为控制多晶硅光伏组件出口规模,积极开拓国内市场是控制减缓和改善多晶硅光伏组件出口碳足迹持续增长最有效的选择。
本文建立了出口产品碳足迹分析方法及政策响应体系,完善了贸易碳足迹研究领域的理论和方法体系,对促进实现我国贸易低碳和持续发展具有一定的科学价值和现实意义。
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英文摘要 |
Since the reform and opening policy, China has now become the largest exporting country in the world. The rapid growth of export trade greatly boosts China’s economic development. Due to the great difference between the energy structure and technological level of domestic and oversea, products export causes a mechanism for import state to shift the products carbon footprint associated with consumption. The developed countries accused China of not bearing the obligations of greenhouse gas emission reduction; on the other hand, they consumed plenty of cheap products which are made in China. Based on this background and life cycle thinking, this thesis focuses on polysilicon photovoltaic modules of China and is trying to develop a
framework for the analysis of export products carbon footprint and policy response in China. Based on this framework, such aspects as definition, accounting method, driving force factors analysis, prediction and policy response are established by industrial ecology tools and statistic analysis methods. The main results are summarized as follows:
(1)Accounting method of Chinese products carbon footprints is established based on life cycle assessment (LCA) and dynamic material flow analysis (MFA). We can identify the sources of materials in processes of different products and distinguish the carbon footprints of the materials in the international trade with the accounting method .It is also helpful to analysis the carbon footprint of export products.
(2) The Chinese fundamental carbon footprint database, which is covers the data of basic energy use, raw materials and industrial process, is built with the accounting method of products carbon footprints. This database is helpful to carry out the study on the carbon footprint sources of materials in the manufacturing process for providing more accurate data.
(3) The method of analysis export products carbon footprint is established to analyze the specific export products of China. This method is used in the study on the China’s multi-crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules export and the results shows that the products carbon footprint rise with exponential rate and the growth rate of China’s multi-crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules export volume. In summary, exported PV modules caused significant greenhouses gas emission in China.
(4) Combining the complexity of export products carbon footprint with the characteristic of Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI), we built a method, included 8 parameters in economic, technology and carbon footprint fields, to analyze the driving force factors of carbon footprint changing. This method is used to analyze the driving force factors of export carbon footprint of PV modules in China. The results show that the economic parameters are the main parameter to influence the increase of export PV modules carbon footprint.
(5) Based on the grey prediction theory, a model used for predicting the trend of export products carbon footprint is established in this thesis. Despite the lack of sufficient data, it is helpful to get the accurate results to use this method. This method is used to estimate the future trend of carbon footprint of export PV modules in China. The results show that the export volume of PV modules in 2014-2020 is saturated due to policy of anti-dumping. The sustainable growth rate of carbon footprint transfer would be controlled due to the technology upgrading and energy saving of PV industry and the export volume is saturated.
(6) The policy response method of controlling the increasing of the export products carbon footprint is developed in this thesis. Suggestions such as participation in international negotiation, making the rules of low carbon footprint of products manufacturing and improving the technology level and structure of export are provided in this policy response method to lower the carbon footprint. In the case of PV modules, we found that the most useful measure is to control export volume and expand the domestic market.
In conclusion, the framework of analyzing the export products carbon footprint and policy response in China is helpful to improve the theory system of research on framework and methodology of trade carbon footprint. It is helpful to provide theoretical and practical support for low carbon and sustainable international trade for China.
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源URL | [http://ir.rcees.ac.cn/handle/311016/34455]  |
专题 | 生态环境研究中心_城市与区域生态国家重点实验室
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推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 |
杨东. 出口产品碳足迹分析及政策响应研究 ━以多晶硅光伏组件为例[D]. 北京. 中国科学院研究生院. 2015.
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