SOLAR CYCLE 25: ANOTHER MODERATE CYCLE?
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Cameron, R. H.1; Jiang, J.2 ; Schuessler, M.1
|
| 刊名 | ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL LETTERS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2016-06-01 |
| 卷号 | 823期号:2 |
| 关键词 | Sun: activity Sun: magnetic fields |
| 英文摘要 | Surface flux transport simulations for the descending phase of Cycle 24 using random sources (emerging bipolar magnetic regions) with empirically determined scatter of their properties provide a prediction of the axial dipole moment during the upcoming activity minimum together with a realistic uncertainty range. The expectation value for the dipole moment around 2020 (2.5 +/- 1.1 G) is comparable to that observed at the end of Cycle 23 (about 2G). The empirical correlation between the dipole moment during solar minimum and the strength of the subsequent cycle thus suggests that Cycle 25 will be of moderate amplitude, not much higher than that of the current cycle. However, the intrinsic uncertainty of such predictions resulting from the random scatter of the source properties is considerable and fundamentally limits the reliability with which such predictions can be made before activity minimum is reached. |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000377031700001 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/5340]  |
| 专题 | 国家天文台_太阳物理研究部 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Max Planck Inst Sonnensyst Forsch, Justus von Liebig Weg 3, D-37077 Gottingen, Germany 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ, Key Lab Solar Act, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cameron, R. H.,Jiang, J.,Schuessler, M.. SOLAR CYCLE 25: ANOTHER MODERATE CYCLE?[J]. ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL LETTERS,2016,823(2). |
| APA | Cameron, R. H.,Jiang, J.,&Schuessler, M..(2016).SOLAR CYCLE 25: ANOTHER MODERATE CYCLE?.ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL LETTERS,823(2). |
| MLA | Cameron, R. H.,et al."SOLAR CYCLE 25: ANOTHER MODERATE CYCLE?".ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL LETTERS 823.2(2016). |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：国家天文台
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