Influences of misprediction costs on solar flare prediction
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Huang Xin ; Wang HuaNing; Dai XingHua
|
| 刊名 | SCIENCE CHINA-PHYSICS MECHANICS & ASTRONOMY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2012-10-01 |
| 卷号 | 55期号:10页码:1956-1962 |
| 关键词 | flares: forecasting sun: magnetic field cost sensitive learning |
| 英文摘要 | The mispredictive costs of flaring and non-flaring samples are different for different applications of solar flare prediction. Hence, solar flare prediction is considered a cost sensitive problem. A cost sensitive solar flare prediction model is built by modifying the basic decision tree algorithm. Inconsistency rate with the exhaustive search strategy is used to determine the optimal combination of magnetic field parameters in an active region. These selected parameters are applied as the inputs of the solar flare prediction model. The performance of the cost sensitive solar flare prediction model is evaluated for the different thresholds of solar flares. It is found that more flaring samples are correctly predicted and more non-flaring samples are wrongly predicted with the increase of the cost for wrongly predicting flaring samples as non-flaring samples, and the larger cost of wrongly predicting flaring samples as non-flaring samples is required for the higher threshold of solar flares. This can be considered as the guide line for choosing proper cost to meet the requirements in different applications. |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000308953800031 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/6156]  |
| 专题 | 国家天文台_太阳物理研究部 |
| 作者单位 | Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ, Key Lab Solar Act, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Huang Xin,Wang HuaNing,Dai XingHua. Influences of misprediction costs on solar flare prediction[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-PHYSICS MECHANICS & ASTRONOMY,2012,55(10):1956-1962. |
| APA | Huang Xin,Wang HuaNing,&Dai XingHua.(2012).Influences of misprediction costs on solar flare prediction.SCIENCE CHINA-PHYSICS MECHANICS & ASTRONOMY,55(10),1956-1962. |
| MLA | Huang Xin,et al."Influences of misprediction costs on solar flare prediction".SCIENCE CHINA-PHYSICS MECHANICS & ASTRONOMY 55.10(2012):1956-1962. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：国家天文台
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