Predicting the solar maximum with the rising rate
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Du ZhanLe ; Wang HuaNing
|
| 刊名 | SCIENCE CHINA-PHYSICS MECHANICS & ASTRONOMY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2012-02-01 |
| 卷号 | 55期号:2页码:365-370 |
| 关键词 | solar physics solar activity sun spots solar cycles |
| 英文摘要 | The growth rate of solar activity in the early phase of a solar cycle has been known to be well correlated with the subsequent amplitude (solar maximum). It provides very useful information for a new solar cycle as its variation reflects the temporal evolution of the dynamic process of solar magnetic activities from the initial phase to the peak phase of the cycle. The correlation coefficient between the solar maximum (R (max)) and the rising rate (beta (a)) at Delta m months after the solar minimum (R (min)) is studied and shown to increase as the cycle progresses with an inflection point (r = 0.83) at about Delta m = 20 months. The prediction error of R (max) based on beta (a) is found within estimation at the 90% level of confidence and the relative prediction error will be less than 20% when Delta m a (c) 3/4 20. From the above relationship, the current cycle (24) is preliminarily predicted to peak around October, 2013 with a size of R (max) = 84 +/- 33 at the 90% level of confidence. |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000299295500026 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/6173]  |
| 专题 | 国家天文台_太阳物理研究部 |
| 作者单位 | Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ, Key Lab Solar Act, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Du ZhanLe,Wang HuaNing. Predicting the solar maximum with the rising rate[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-PHYSICS MECHANICS & ASTRONOMY,2012,55(2):365-370. |
| APA | Du ZhanLe,&Wang HuaNing.(2012).Predicting the solar maximum with the rising rate.SCIENCE CHINA-PHYSICS MECHANICS & ASTRONOMY,55(2),365-370. |
| MLA | Du ZhanLe,et al."Predicting the solar maximum with the rising rate".SCIENCE CHINA-PHYSICS MECHANICS & ASTRONOMY 55.2(2012):365-370. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：国家天文台
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