Ensemble prediction model of solar proton events associated with solar flares and coronal mass ejections
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Huang, Xin ; Wang, Hua-Ning; Li, Le-Ping; Li Leping; Huang Xin; Wang Huaning
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| 刊名 | RESEARCH IN ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS
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| 出版日期 | 2012-03-01 |
| 卷号 | 12期号:3页码:313-321 |
| 关键词 | solar proton events Sun: flares Sun: coronal mass ejections methods: statistical ensemble learning |
| 英文摘要 | An ensemble prediction model of solar proton events (SPEs), combining the information of solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is built. In this model, solar flares are parameterized by the peak flux, the duration and the longitude. In addition, CMEs are parameterized by the width, the speed and the measurement position angle. The importance of each parameter for the occurrence of SPEs is estimated by the information gain ratio. We find that the CME width and speed are more informative than the flare's peak flux and duration. As the physical mechanism of SPEs is not very clear, a hidden naive Bayes approach, which is a probability-based calculation method from the field of machine learning, is used to build the prediction model from the observational data. As is known, SPEs originate from solar flares and/or shock waves associated with CMEs. Hence, we first build two base prediction models using the properties of solar flares and CMEs, respectively. Then the outputs of these models are combined to generate the ensemble prediction model of SPEs. The ensemble prediction model incorporating the complementary information of solar flares and CMEs achieves better performance than each base prediction model taken separately. |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000302051900007 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/6322]  |
| 专题 | 国家天文台_太阳物理研究部 |
| 作者单位 | Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ, Key Lab Solar Act, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Huang, Xin,Wang, Hua-Ning,Li, Le-Ping,et al. Ensemble prediction model of solar proton events associated with solar flares and coronal mass ejections[J]. RESEARCH IN ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS,2012,12(3):313-321. |
| APA | Huang, Xin,Wang, Hua-Ning,Li, Le-Ping,Li Leping,Huang Xin,&Wang Huaning.(2012).Ensemble prediction model of solar proton events associated with solar flares and coronal mass ejections.RESEARCH IN ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS,12(3),313-321. |
| MLA | Huang, Xin,et al."Ensemble prediction model of solar proton events associated with solar flares and coronal mass ejections".RESEARCH IN ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS 12.3(2012):313-321. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：国家天文台
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