Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination
文献类型：SCI/SSCI论文
| 作者 | Ren Z. P.; Wang, D. Q.; Ma, A. M.; Hwang, J.; Bennett, A.; Sturrock, H. J. W.; Fan, J. F.; Zhang, W. J.; Yang, D.; Feng, X. Y. |
| 发表日期 | 2016 |
| 关键词 | plasmodium-falciparum species distributions anopheles-arabiensis night lights transmission temperature models future projections culicidae |
| 英文摘要 | Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity. |
| 出处 | Scientific Reports |
| 卷 | 6 |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| ISSN号 | 2045-2322 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/43294]  |
| 专题 | 地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ren Z. P.,Wang, D. Q.,Ma, A. M.,et al. Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination. 2016. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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