中国科学院机构知识库网格
Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid
How Will Climate Change Affect the Water Availability in the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China?

文献类型:SCI/SSCI论文

作者Zhang A. J.; Liu, W. B.; Yin, Z. L.; Fu, G. B.; Zheng, C. M.; Gao, Y.; Chen, J.; Yang F.
发表日期2016
关键词mountainous watersheds change scenarios change impacts upper reaches flow regimes arid region model runoff hydrology rainfall
英文摘要This paper presents a detailed analysis of how future climate change may affect water availability in a typical arid endorheic river basin, the Heihe River basin (HRB), in northwest China. The analysis is based on the improved Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which is calibrated and validated with historical streamflow data from the upper HRB and is used to predict future hydrological responses. Six general circulation models (GCMs), under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), are downscaled to construct future climate change scenarios. The results suggest that the climate of the upper HRB will likely become warmer and wetter in the near future (2021-50), with the largest increase in precipitation occurring in the summer. Correspondingly, the basinwide evapotranspiration, snowmelt, and runoff are projected to increase over the same period. The mean temperature in the near future is projected to rise, relative to the recent 30 years (1981-2010), by 1.2 degrees-1.7 degrees C under scenario RCP4.5 and by 1.4 degrees-2.1 degrees C under scenario RCP8.5. The mean precipitation is projected to increase by 10.0%-16.6% under scenario RCP4.5, and by 10.5%-22.0% under scenario RCP8.5. The mean values of evapotranspiration, snowmelt, and runoff are expected to increase by 14.2%, 4.3%, and 11.4%, respectively, under scenario RCP4.5 and to increase by 18.7%, 5.8%, and 12.8%, respectively, under scenario RCP8.5. Though the model simulations forecast an increase in streamflows in the headwater region of the HRB, future water availability varies significantly over space and time. The findings of this study will help to frame more effective water management strategies for the HRB under changing climatic conditions.
出处Journal of Hydrometeorology
17
5
1517-1542
收录类别SCI
语种英语
ISSN号1525-755X
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/43345]  
专题地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Zhang A. J.,Liu, W. B.,Yin, Z. L.,et al. How Will Climate Change Affect the Water Availability in the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China?. 2016.

入库方式: OAI收割

来源:地理科学与资源研究所

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