Numerical modeling and prediction of future response of permafrost to different climate change scenarios on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
文献类型：SCI/SSCI论文
| 作者 | Zhang W. J.; Ren, Z. P.; Yao, L.; Zhou, C. H.; Zhu, Y. Q. |
| 发表日期 | 2016 |
| 关键词 | future permafrost changes Qinghai-Tibet Plateau altitude-response model temperature data VLRT RCPs past 50 years cryospheric change china degradation simulation |
| 英文摘要 | Projecting the future distribution of permafrost under different climate change scenarios is essential, especially for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). The altitude-response model is used to estimate future permafrost changes on the QTP for the four RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). The simulation results show the following: (1) from now until 2070, the permafrost will experience different degrees of significant degradation under the four RCP scenarios. This will affect 25.68%, 40.54%, 45.95%, and 62.84% of the current permafrost area, respectively. (2) The permafrost changes occur at different rates during the periods 2030-2050 and 2050-2070 for the four different RCPs. (1) In RCP2.6, the permafrost area decreases a little during the period 2030-2050 but shows a small increase from 2050 to 2070. (2) In RCP4.5, the rate of permafrost loss during the period 2030-2050 (about 12.73%) is higher than between 2050 and 2070 (about 8.33%). (3) In RCP6.0, the permafrost loss rate for the period 2030-2050 (about 16.52%) is similar to that for 2050-2070 (about 16.67%). (4) In RCP8.5, there is a significant discrepancy in the rate of permafrost decrease for the periods 2030-2050 and 2050-2070: the rate is only about 3.70% for the first period but about 29.49% during the second. |
| 出处 | International Journal of Digital Earth |
| 卷 | 9 |
| 期 | 5 |
| 页 | 442-456 |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| ISSN号 | 1753-8947 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/43356]  |
| 专题 | 地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang W. J.,Ren, Z. P.,Yao, L.,et al. Numerical modeling and prediction of future response of permafrost to different climate change scenarios on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. 2016. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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