Quantifying future changes in glacier melt and river runoff in the headwaters of the Urumqi River, China
文献类型：SCI/SSCI论文
| 作者 | Zhang Y. Q.; Luo, Y.; Sun, L. |
| 发表日期 | 2016 |
| 关键词 | Climate change Glacier melt Runoff GCMs climate-change impacts central-asia tien-shan no. 1 tianshan mountains water-resources northwest china cordillera-blanca eastern tianshan mass-balance |
| 英文摘要 | Climate change is likely to have significant effects on the water cycle in glacierized basins. Here, the glacier-enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to simulate glacio-hydrological processes and to estimate the potential hydrological changes driven by downscaled future climate projections of five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) in the headwaters of the Urumqi River, Tianshan Mountains, China. The evaluation indices indicated that the model performed well at simulating streamflow during the calibration and validation. The GCM-predicted mean temperature and precipitation both increase. The periods of 1966-1995, 2016-2045 and 2066-2095 were used as the baseline, the near future, and the far future periods, respectively. The results showed different runoff characteristics under various scenarios in the Urumqi Glacier No. 1 (UG1) sub-basin and Urumqi River Basin (URB) due to distinct melt water contributions. In the UG1 sub-basin, the ice melt and glacier melt are expected to reach peak water in the near future and sharply decline in the far future, and the sub-basin runoff would gradually decrease under all RCPs. In the URB, the ice melt and glacier melt rapidly decrease but the river runoff remains stable under RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5, with a slight decrease under RCP 8.5. The grouped glacier area with small size class shows a rapid retreat rate. It was also found that melt water from three grouped glaciers exhibit different responses to future scenarios. |
| 出处 | Environmental Earth Sciences |
| 卷 | 75 |
| 期 | 9 |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| ISSN号 | 1866-6280 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/43928]  |
| 专题 | 生态系统网络观测与模拟院重点实验室_生态网络实验室 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang Y. Q.,Luo, Y.,Sun, L.. Quantifying future changes in glacier melt and river runoff in the headwaters of the Urumqi River, China. 2016. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。