Statistical modeling and CMIP5 simulations of hot spell changes in China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wang, Weiwen; Zhou, Wen; Li, Yun; Wang, Xin; Wang, Dongxiao |
| 刊名 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2015 |
| 卷号 | 44期号:9-10页码:2859-2872 |
| 关键词 | Hot spell model Extreme value theory CMIP5 |
| 通讯作者 | wenzhou@cityu.edu.hk |
| 中文摘要 | A hot spell is an extreme weather event with one or more consecutive days with daily maximum temperature exceeding a certain threshold of high temperature. Statistical modeling of summer hot spells in China during 1960-2005 and their simulations in the historical experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are investigated in this study. A technique called the hot spell model (HSM), introduced by Furrer et al. (Clim Res 43:191-205, 2010) for modeling hot spells by extending the point process approach to extreme value theory, is applied. Specifically, the frequency of summer hot spells is modeled by a Poisson distribution, their intensity is modeled by a generalized Pareto distribution, and their duration is modeled by a geometric distribution. Results show that the HSM permits realistic modeling of summer hot spells in China. Trends in the frequency, duration, and intensity of hot spells were estimated based on the HSM for the observed period from 1960 to 2005. Furthermore, the performance in simulating hot spell characteristics and trends from the CMIP5 historical run were assessed based on the HSM. Climate models with good performance were selected to conduct an ensemble projection of hot spell intensity, frequency, and duration and their trends in future decades. |
| 学科主题 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 源URL | [http://ir.scsio.ac.cn/handle/344004/14987]  |
| 专题 | 南海海洋研究所_热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(LTO) |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Weiwen,Zhou, Wen,Li, Yun,et al. Statistical modeling and CMIP5 simulations of hot spell changes in China[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2015,44(9-10):2859-2872. |
| APA | Wang, Weiwen,Zhou, Wen,Li, Yun,Wang, Xin,&Wang, Dongxiao.(2015).Statistical modeling and CMIP5 simulations of hot spell changes in China.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,44(9-10),2859-2872. |
| MLA | Wang, Weiwen,et al."Statistical modeling and CMIP5 simulations of hot spell changes in China".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 44.9-10(2015):2859-2872. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：南海海洋研究所
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