以黑河流域上游为研究对象，通过对山区自然产水区的产汇流机理的研究，基于分布式水文模型集成环境的开发思想，利用MMS（modularmodelingsystem）模型库中与降水径流相关的模块，通过综合各种产流（包括超渗、蓄满产流）机理、并且根据寒区产汇流的特点对USGS开发的流域PRMS（precipitation—runoffmodels）模型进行了改进，增加了土壤水运动中降雨入渗补给的多层土壤滞后效应模块以及积雪融雪和冻土面积识别模型，建立了适合于寒区流域的分布式PRMS模型。利用该模型对黑河上游出山径流过程进行了模拟与预报，模型研究结果表明：利用MMS建立的黑河上游改进的PRMS模型不仅完全可以模拟和预测黑河上游的产汇流过程，在考虑了冻土的情况下，预测年出山径流量误差小于2．7％；而且模型可以对黑河上游径流组成成分进行分析计算，对黑河上游产汇流机理做进一步阐明。利用改进的PRMS模型，预测分析了黑河上游未来气候和土地覆盖变化情景下流域出山径流变化的趋势，为黑河流域水资源合理利用和管理提供科学依据。

The Heihe river upstream basin was selected as a case study, the mechanisms of runoff yield and concentration in upstream mountain areas were cognized by using the rainfall -runoff relevant modules in MMS （modular modeling system） model. Considering hysteresis of rainfall seepage in non- saturated soil, and integrated the snowmelt models and frost -soil area identify models together, the existing tested - basin PRMS （ precipitation - runoff models ） was modified and improved in this study. The improved new PRMS is used to simulate and forecast the hydro- logical process in the upstream of the Heihe River, and the results showed that the improved new PRMS was more suitable for the dry and cold mountain areas of inland basins. Due to considering the frost-soil conditions, the runoff simulation and forecast error is less than 2.7%, and each ele- ment of runoff composition was simulated and forecasted more veracious than the original PRMS. Finally, the stream flow changing trends were analyzed under different climate and land cover change scenarios in future, which provided the scientific basis for the rational use and management of water resources in the Heihe River Basin.