泥石流是山区常见的自然灾害之一.泥石流发生、发展的规模和频率主要受降雨的周期性、季节性和突发性等因素的控制和制约.应用云南东川蒋家沟暴雨的时序资料以及高频率泥石流输沙的时序资料,分析暴雨泥石流周期变化的成因,重构了暴雨泥石流输沙年际变率的旋回现象(周期性).从而揭示了暴雨泥石流灾害活动周期性变化的基本规律联营为暴雨泥石流中、短时间尺度的预测研究探索一条新路.

Debris flow is one of often-natural hazards in mountain areas. It is three essential conditions to form rainfall debris flows for deep topography, a lot of loose solid material, and rainfall in certain intensity. But in the same ravine, the deep topography and losse soild material can be regarded as relativey constant (or almost constant) in a certain period. The scale and frequency of occurrences and development of debris flows in the ravine mainly will be controlled and restricted by some resons of periodicty, season and abrupt occurrence of rainfall. This paper has anlyzed the formation of the periodical change of rainstorm debris flows, and also introduced the cycle property of the annual sediment transformation by rainstorm debris flows, according to observational order data from 1965 to 2001 for 37 years at Jiangjia Ravine, Yunnan, China. It can seek a new idea for prediction of rainstorm debris hazards in the middle or sort time scale.