2010年是厄尔尼诺转拉尼娜的极端气候年份, 也是我国21世纪地质灾害最为频繁的一年。统计显示地质灾害特别集中于我国西南山区, 主要为泥石流滑坡(含崩塌)。2010年前期干旱严重, 雨季暴雨集中, 单个个例的研究也凸显自然条件的控制, 但灾害发生的主导因素依然很少定量的分析与陈述。为此, 本文通过对干湿循环的特征指标与灾害分布的时空规律进行耦合, 分析2010年西南山区灾害的影响因素。结果表明, 该年西南山区64%的大规模的泥石流滑坡事件与该年干旱有一定的对应关系, 而干湿循环是2010年灾害发育的一个重要促进因素, 其导致泥石流滑坡发生主要表现在干旱时出现大量裂隙, 降水渗流沿裂隙集中下渗增加渗流压力, 减少阻力与增加下滑力的综合作用。

 The year of 2010 is the extreme weather year when El Niño transferred into La Niña, and in this year most geological disasters happened extremely frequently in China. Statistics showed that the hazards concentrated in the southwest mountain areas of China, and the main hazards were the debris flows and landslides(including collapses).Drought happened in early 2010 and rainstorm occurred in rainy season, and the study about single case indicated that it was affected by the natural condition, the dominant factor of hazard was rarely quantitatively analyzed and indicated. In this paper, we coupled characteristic index of dry-wet cycle and the large-scale hazards in the southwest mountain areas of China and analyzed the influence factor of the disasters. Results indicated that 64 percent of the large-scale disasters in the research areas have a corresponding relationship with the drought in 2010, and the dry-wet cycle is one important factor to cause disasters. The influence of dry-wet cycle mainly reflects as follows: large numbers of cracks occurred with the happening of drought, then the rainfall infiltrated along the cracks which resulted in the decrease of resistance and the increase of both seepage pressure and sliding force.