Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Reid, Philip C.1; Hari, Renata E.1; Beaugrand, Gregory1; Livingstone, David M.1; Marty, Christoph1; Straile, Dietmar1; Barichivich, Jonathan1; Goberville, Eric1; Adrian, Rita1; Aono, Yasuyuki1 |
| 刊名 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2016 |
| 卷号 | 22期号:2页码:682-703 |
| 关键词 | MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT PROGRAM MULTISCALE SYNTHESIS CARBON-DIOXIDE INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ECOSYSTEM EXCHANGE LAND-USE NITROGEN DEPOSITION GLOBAL CHANGE SOIL RESPIRATION BIOSPHERE MODELS |
| 通讯作者 | Reid, PC (reprint author), Sir Alister Hardy Fdn Ocean Sci, Lab Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, Devon, England. ; Reid, PC (reprint author), Univ Plymouth, Inst Marine, Drake Circus, Plymouth PL4 8AA, Devon, England. ; Reid, PC (reprint author), Lab, Marine Biol Assoc UK, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, Devon, England. |
| 英文摘要 | Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichon volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur. |
| 学科主题 | Biodiversity & Conservation; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 类目[WOS] | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000369135400017 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.radi.ac.cn/handle/183411/39565]  |
| 专题 | 遥感与数字地球研究所_SCI/EI期刊论文_期刊论文 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Sir Alister Hardy Fdn Ocean Sci, Lab Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, Devon, England 2.Univ Plymouth, Inst Marine, Drake Circus, Plymouth PL4 8AA, Devon, England 3.Lab, Marine Biol Assoc UK, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, Devon, England 4.Eawag, Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol, Uberlandstr 133, CH-8600 Dubendorf, Switzerland 5.Univ Sci & Technol Lille, CNRS, LOG, UMR 8187, BP 80, F-62930 Wimereux, France 6.WSL Inst Snow & Avalanche Res SLF, Fluelastr 11, CH-7260 Davos, Switzerland 7.Univ Konstanz, Limnol Inst, Dept Biol, D-78464 Constance, Germany 8.Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England 9.CEA CNRS UVSQ, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France 10.Leibniz Inst Freshwater Ecol & Inland Fisheries, Dept Ecosyst Res, D-12587 Berlin, Germany |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Reid, Philip C.,Hari, Renata E.,Beaugrand, Gregory,et al. Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2016,22(2):682-703. |
| APA | Reid, Philip C..,Hari, Renata E..,Beaugrand, Gregory.,Livingstone, David M..,Marty, Christoph.,...&Zhu, Zaichun.(2016).Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,22(2),682-703. |
| MLA | Reid, Philip C.,et al."Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 22.2(2016):682-703. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：遥感与数字地球研究所
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