Is a higher correlation necessary for a more accurate prediction?
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Du ZhanLe ; Wang HuaNing
|
| 刊名 | SCIENCE CHINA-PHYSICS MECHANICS & ASTRONOMY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2011 |
| 卷号 | 54期号:1页码:172-175 |
| 关键词 | solar activity sun spots solar cycles |
| 英文摘要 | A higher correlation tends to yield a more accurate prediction, so that a correlation as high as possible has been searched for and employed in the prediction of solar activity. Instead of using geomagnetic activity during the descending phase of the solar cycle, the minimum annual aa index (aa(min)) is used as an indicator for the ensuing maximum amplitude (R(m)) of the sunspot cycle. A four-cycle periodicity is roughly shown in the correlation between Rm and aamin. The widely accepted Ohl's precursor prediction method often fails due to the prediction error relative to its estimated uncertainty. An accurate prediction depends on the positive variation of the correlation rather than a higher correlation. Previous experiences by using this method indicate that a prediction for the next cycle, R(m)(24) = 80 +/- 17, is likely to fail, implying that the sunspot maximum of Cycle 24 may be either smaller than 63 or greater than 97. |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000287765900026 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/7828]  |
| 专题 | 国家天文台_太阳物理研究部 |
| 作者单位 | Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Solar Act, Natl Astron Observ, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Du ZhanLe,Wang HuaNing. Is a higher correlation necessary for a more accurate prediction?[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-PHYSICS MECHANICS & ASTRONOMY,2011,54(1):172-175. |
| APA | Du ZhanLe,&Wang HuaNing.(2011).Is a higher correlation necessary for a more accurate prediction?.SCIENCE CHINA-PHYSICS MECHANICS & ASTRONOMY,54(1),172-175. |
| MLA | Du ZhanLe,et al."Is a higher correlation necessary for a more accurate prediction?".SCIENCE CHINA-PHYSICS MECHANICS & ASTRONOMY 54.1(2011):172-175. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：国家天文台
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