The Shape of Solar Cycle Described by a Modified Gaussian Function
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Du, Zhanle
|
| 刊名 | SOLAR PHYSICS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2011-10-01 |
| 卷号 | 273期号:1页码:231-253 |
| 关键词 | Models Solar cycle Sunspots |
| 英文摘要 | The shape of each sunspot cycle is found to be well described by a modified Gaussian function with four parameters: peak size A, peak timing t(m), width B, and asymmetry alpha. The four-parameter function can be further reduced to a two-parameter function by assuming that B and alpha are quadratic functions of t(m), computed from the starting time (T-0). It is found that the shape can be better fitted by the four-parameter function, while the remaining behavior of the cycle can be better predicted by the two-parameter function when using the data from a few (about two) months after the starting time defined by the smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers. As a new solar cycle is ongoing, its remaining behavior can be constructed by the above four- or two-parameter function. A running test shows that the maximum amplitude of the cycle can be predicted to within 15% at about 25 months into the cycle based on the two-parameter function. A preliminary modeling to the first 24 months of data available for the current cycle indicates that the peak of cycle 24 may probably occur around June 2013 +/- 7 months with a size of 72 +/- 11. The above results are compared to those by quasi-Planck functions. |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000297125700015 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/7893]  |
| 专题 | 国家天文台_太阳物理研究部 |
| 作者单位 | Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Solar Activ, Natl Astron Observ, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Du, Zhanle. The Shape of Solar Cycle Described by a Modified Gaussian Function[J]. SOLAR PHYSICS,2011,273(1):231-253. |
| APA | Du, Zhanle.(2011).The Shape of Solar Cycle Described by a Modified Gaussian Function.SOLAR PHYSICS,273(1),231-253. |
| MLA | Du, Zhanle."The Shape of Solar Cycle Described by a Modified Gaussian Function".SOLAR PHYSICS 273.1(2011):231-253. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：国家天文台
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。