The Relationship between Prediction Accuracy and Correlation Coefficient
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Du, Zhanle
|
| 刊名 | SOLAR PHYSICS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2011-05-01 |
| 卷号 | 270期号:1页码:407-416 |
| 关键词 | Solar activity, sunspots, solar cycle Geomagnetic activity, geomagnetic indices Prediction |
| 英文摘要 | The correlation coefficient (r) between the maximum amplitude (R (m)) of a sunspot cycle and the preceding minimum aa geomagnetic index (aa (min)), in terms of geomagnetic cycle, can be fitted by a sinusoidal function with a four-cycle periodicity superimposed on a declining trend. The prediction index (chi) of the prediction error relative to its estimated uncertainty based on a geomagnetic precursor method can be fitted by a sinusoidal function with a four-and-half-cycle periodicity. A revised prediction relationship is found between the two quantities: chi < 1.2 if r varies in a rising trend, and chi > 1.2 if r varies in a declining trend. The prediction accuracy of R (m) depends on the long-term variation in the correlation. These results indicate that the prediction for the next cycle inferred from this method, R (m)(24)=87 +/- 23 regarding the 75% level of confidence (1.2-sigma), is likely to fail. When using another predictor of sunspot area instead of the geomagnetic index, similar results can be also obtained. Dynamo models will have better predictive powers when having considered the long-term periodicities. |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000290447400028 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/8003]  |
| 专题 | 国家天文台_太阳物理研究部 |
| 作者单位 | Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Solar Act, Natl Astron Observ, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Du, Zhanle. The Relationship between Prediction Accuracy and Correlation Coefficient[J]. SOLAR PHYSICS,2011,270(1):407-416. |
| APA | Du, Zhanle.(2011).The Relationship between Prediction Accuracy and Correlation Coefficient.SOLAR PHYSICS,270(1),407-416. |
| MLA | Du, Zhanle."The Relationship between Prediction Accuracy and Correlation Coefficient".SOLAR PHYSICS 270.1(2011):407-416. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：国家天文台
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