Study on the forecast effects of PI method to the north and southwest China
文献类型：会议论文
| 作者 | Zhang YX ; Zhang XT ; Yin XC(尹祥础) ; Wu YJ |
| 出版日期 | 2010 |
| 会议名称 | 6th APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulations (ACES) |
| 会议日期 | MAY 11-16, 2008 |
| 会议地点 | Cairns, AUSTRALIA |
| 通讯作者邮箱 | wuyongj@mails.gucas.ac.cn |
| 关键词 | Pi Method Retrospective Forecast Test North China Southwest China Pattern Informatics Method Southern California Threshold Systems Earthquake Events Dynamics |
| 页码 | 1559-1568 |
| 通讯作者 | Wu YJ |
| 中文摘要 | In this paper, the codes of Pattern Informatics (PI) method put forward by Rundle et al. have been worked out according to their algorithm published, and the retrospective forecast of PI method to North China (28.0 degrees-42.0 degrees N, 108.0 degrees-125.0 degrees E) and to Southwest China (22.0 degrees-28.3 degrees N, 98.0 degrees-106.0 degrees E) has been tested. The results show that the hit rates in different regions show a great difference. In Southwest China, 32 earthquakes with M(L)5.0 or larger have occurred during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and 26 out of the 32 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. In North China, the total number of M(L)5.0 or larger was 12 during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and only 3 out of the 12 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. From our results, we hold that if the PI method could be applied to all kinds of regions, the parameters associated with time points and time windows should be chosen carefully to obtain the higher hit rate. We also found that the aftershocks in a strong earthquake sequence affect the PI results obviously. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
| 收录类别 | CPCI(ISTP) |
| 合作状况 | 国内 |
| 会议网址 | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/cpe.1515 |
| 会议录 | CONCURRENCY AND COMPUTATION-PRACTICE & EXPERIENCE
 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| ISSN号 | 1532-0626 |
| 源URL | [http://dspace.imech.ac.cn/handle/311007/44336]  |
| 专题 | 力学研究所_非线性力学国家重点实验室 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang YX,Zhang XT,Yin XC,et al. Study on the forecast effects of PI method to the north and southwest China[C]. 见:6th APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulations (ACES). Cairns, AUSTRALIA. MAY 11-16, 2008.http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/cpe.1515. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：力学研究所
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