Evolution-induced catastrophe and its predictability
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wei YJ(魏宇杰) ; Xia MF(夏蒙棼); Ke FJ(柯孚久); Yin XC(尹祥础); Bai YL(白以龙)
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| 刊名 | Pure and Applied Geophysics
 |
| 出版日期 | 2000 |
| 卷号 | 157期号:11-12页码:1945-1957 |
| ISSN号 | 0033-4553 |
| 通讯作者 | Wei, YJ (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mech, State Key Lab Nonlinear Mech, Beijing 100080, Peoples R China. |
| 中文摘要 | Both earthquake prediction and failure prediction of disordered brittle media are difficult and complicated problems and they might have something in common. In order to search for clues for earthquake prediction, the common features of failure in a simple nonlinear dynamical model resembling disordered brittle media are examined. It is found that the failure manifests evolution-induced catastrophe (EIC), i.e., the abrupt transition from globally stable (GS) accumulation of damage to catastrophic failure. A distinct feature is the significant uncertainty of catastrophe, called sample-specificity. Consequently, it is impossible to make a deterministic prediction macroscopically. This is similar to the question of predictability of earthquakes. However, our model shows that strong stress fluctuations may be an immediate precursor of catastrophic failure statistically. This might provide clues for earthquake forecasting. |
| 学科主题 | 力学 |
| 类目[WOS] | Geochemistry & Geophysics |
| 研究领域[WOS] | Geochemistry & Geophysics |
| 关键词[WOS] | SENSITIVITY ; FAILURE ; MODELS |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000166705300008 |
| 公开日期 | 2007-06-15 ; 2007-12-05 ; 2009-06-23 |
| 源URL | [http://dspace.imech.ac.cn/handle/311007/16867]  |
| 专题 | 力学研究所_力学所知识产出(1956-2008) |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wei YJ,Xia MF,Ke FJ,et al. Evolution-induced catastrophe and its predictability[J]. Pure and Applied Geophysics,2000,157(11-12):1945-1957. |
| APA | 魏宇杰,夏蒙棼,柯孚久,尹祥础,&白以龙.(2000).Evolution-induced catastrophe and its predictability.Pure and Applied Geophysics,157(11-12),1945-1957. |
| MLA | 魏宇杰,et al."Evolution-induced catastrophe and its predictability".Pure and Applied Geophysics 157.11-12(2000):1945-1957. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：力学研究所
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