Projections of the impacts of climate change on the water deficit and on the precipitation erosive indexes in Mantaro River Basin, Peru
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Sly C. WONGCHUIG; Carlos R. MELLO; Sin C. CHOU |
| 刊名 | Journal of Mountain Science
 |
| 出版日期 | 2018-02 |
| 卷号 | 15期号:2页码:264-279 |
| 关键词 | Precipitation Evaporation Precipitation Concentration Index (Pci) Modified Fournier Index (Mfi) Climate Change Tropical Andes |
| ISSN号 | 1672-6316 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11629-017-4418-8 |
| 通讯作者 | Carlos R. MELLO |
| 英文摘要 | Projections of climate change are essential to guide sustainable development plans in the tropical Andean countries such as Peru. This study assessedthe projections of precipitation and potential evaporation, rain erosive potential, and precipitation concentration in the Mantaro River Basin, in the Peruvian Andes, whichis important for agriculture and energy production in Peru. Weassumedthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B greenhouse gas emission scenarioand simulated the global climate change by the HadCM3 global climate model. Due to the steepness of the mountain slopes and the narrowness of the river valley, this study uses the downscaling of the global model simulations by the regional Eta model down to 20-km resolution. The downscaling projections show decrease in the monthly precipitation with respect to the baseline period, especially during the rainy season, between February and April, until the end of the21st century. Meanwhile, a progressive increase in the monthly evaporation from the baseline period is projected. The Modified Fournier Index (MFI) shows a statistically significant downward trend in the Mantaro River Basin, which suggests a possible reduction in the rain erosive potential. The Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) shows a statistically significant increasing trend, which indicates increasingly more irregular temporal distribution of precipitation towards the end of the century. The results of this study allow us to conclude that there should be a gradual increase in water deficit and precipitation concentration. Both changes can be negative for agriculture, power generation, and water supply in the Mantaro River Basin in Peru. |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/20844]  |
| 专题 | Journal of Mountain Science _Journal of Mountain Science-2018_Vol15 No.2 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sly C. WONGCHUIG,Carlos R. MELLO,Sin C. CHOU. Projections of the impacts of climate change on the water deficit and on the precipitation erosive indexes in Mantaro River Basin, Peru[J]. Journal of Mountain Science,2018,15(2):264-279. |
| APA | Sly C. WONGCHUIG,Carlos R. MELLO,&Sin C. CHOU.(2018).Projections of the impacts of climate change on the water deficit and on the precipitation erosive indexes in Mantaro River Basin, Peru.Journal of Mountain Science,15(2),264-279. |
| MLA | Sly C. WONGCHUIG,et al."Projections of the impacts of climate change on the water deficit and on the precipitation erosive indexes in Mantaro River Basin, Peru".Journal of Mountain Science 15.2(2018):264-279. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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