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Periodic changes of stream flow in the last 40 years in Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Chen, Yaning2; Pang, Zhonghe1; Hao, Xingming2; Xu, Changchun2; Chen, Yapeng2
刊名HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES
出版日期2008-10-15
卷号22期号:21页码:4214-4221
ISSN号0885-6087
关键词time series climate change prediction arid inland river basin
DOI10.1002/hyp.7024
文献子类Article
英文摘要Using the annual runoff series for the last 40 years from the Tarim River Basin, their periodic properties were analysed and their future trends predicted. Runoff data were collected at five hydrological gauging stations in the three main branches of the Tarim River. An extrapolation method and variance analysis were used to identify periods in annual runoff and a trend superposition model to predict future changes. Results show that, there is a common period of 17 years in annual runoff changes for all three branches, with Hotan River showing an additional period of 10 years. Based on this trend, it is suggested that the annual runoff of the Tarim River should decrease in the period of 2006-2008, but increase ill year 2009. a and the How may possibly begin to decrease significantly in veal 2010. The long term trend of runoff In Tarim Basin has followed the global prediction of GCMs, i.e. began to increase in accordance with global increase of air temperature and precipitation in 1990. However, it has shown a local feature of uneven changes among, the head streams in the same basin, which needs to be further investigated. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons. Ltd.
WOS关键词HYDROLOGICAL SERIES ; SOUTHEAST-ASIA ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; DETECT TREND ; OSCILLATION
WOS研究方向Water Resources
语种英语
出版者WILEY-BLACKWELL
WOS记录号WOS:000260193500004
资助机构Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences 'Water resources in Xinjiang: formation, transformation and control(KZCX2-YW-127) ; Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences 'Water resources in Xinjiang: formation, transformation and control(KZCX2-YW-127) ; Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences 'Water resources in Xinjiang: formation, transformation and control(KZCX2-YW-127) ; Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences 'Water resources in Xinjiang: formation, transformation and control(KZCX2-YW-127) ; Water Resources Utilization and Integrated Management Demonstration in Tarim River Basin(90502004) ; Water Resources Utilization and Integrated Management Demonstration in Tarim River Basin(90502004) ; Water Resources Utilization and Integrated Management Demonstration in Tarim River Basin(90502004) ; Water Resources Utilization and Integrated Management Demonstration in Tarim River Basin(90502004) ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(30500081 ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(30500081 ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(30500081 ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(30500081 ; 40672171) ; 40672171) ; 40672171) ; 40672171) ; Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences 'Water resources in Xinjiang: formation, transformation and control(KZCX2-YW-127) ; Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences 'Water resources in Xinjiang: formation, transformation and control(KZCX2-YW-127) ; Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences 'Water resources in Xinjiang: formation, transformation and control(KZCX2-YW-127) ; Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences 'Water resources in Xinjiang: formation, transformation and control(KZCX2-YW-127) ; Water Resources Utilization and Integrated Management Demonstration in Tarim River Basin(90502004) ; Water Resources Utilization and Integrated Management Demonstration in Tarim River Basin(90502004) ; Water Resources Utilization and Integrated Management Demonstration in Tarim River Basin(90502004) ; Water Resources Utilization and Integrated Management Demonstration in Tarim River Basin(90502004) ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(30500081 ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(30500081 ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(30500081 ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(30500081 ; 40672171) ; 40672171) ; 40672171) ; 40672171) ; Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences 'Water resources in Xinjiang: formation, transformation and control(KZCX2-YW-127) ; Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences 'Water resources in Xinjiang: formation, transformation and control(KZCX2-YW-127) ; Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences 'Water resources in Xinjiang: formation, transformation and control(KZCX2-YW-127) ; Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences 'Water resources in Xinjiang: formation, transformation and control(KZCX2-YW-127) ; Water Resources Utilization and Integrated Management Demonstration in Tarim River Basin(90502004) ; Water Resources Utilization and Integrated Management Demonstration in Tarim River Basin(90502004) ; Water Resources Utilization and Integrated Management Demonstration in Tarim River Basin(90502004) ; Water Resources Utilization and Integrated Management Demonstration in Tarim River Basin(90502004) ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(30500081 ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(30500081 ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(30500081 ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(30500081 ; 40672171) ; 40672171) ; 40672171) ; 40672171) ; Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences 'Water resources in Xinjiang: formation, transformation and control(KZCX2-YW-127) ; Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences 'Water resources in Xinjiang: formation, transformation and control(KZCX2-YW-127) ; Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences 'Water resources in Xinjiang: formation, transformation and control(KZCX2-YW-127) ; Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences 'Water resources in Xinjiang: formation, transformation and control(KZCX2-YW-127) ; Water Resources Utilization and Integrated Management Demonstration in Tarim River Basin(90502004) ; Water Resources Utilization and Integrated Management Demonstration in Tarim River Basin(90502004) ; Water Resources Utilization and Integrated Management Demonstration in Tarim River Basin(90502004) ; Water Resources Utilization and Integrated Management Demonstration in Tarim River Basin(90502004) ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(30500081 ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(30500081 ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(30500081 ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(30500081 ; 40672171) ; 40672171) ; 40672171) ; 40672171)
源URL[http://ir.iggcas.ac.cn/handle/132A11/70111]  
专题中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所
通讯作者Pang, Zhonghe
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geol & Geophys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Chen, Yaning,Pang, Zhonghe,Hao, Xingming,et al. Periodic changes of stream flow in the last 40 years in Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China[J]. HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES,2008,22(21):4214-4221.
APA Chen, Yaning,Pang, Zhonghe,Hao, Xingming,Xu, Changchun,&Chen, Yapeng.(2008).Periodic changes of stream flow in the last 40 years in Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China.HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES,22(21),4214-4221.
MLA Chen, Yaning,et al."Periodic changes of stream flow in the last 40 years in Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China".HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES 22.21(2008):4214-4221.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地质与地球物理研究所

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