MODELING FIXED ODDS BETTING FOR FUTURE EVENT PREDICTION
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Chen, Weiyun1; Li, Xin2; Zeng, Daniel3,4
|
| 刊名 | MIS QUARTERLY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2017-06-01 |
| 卷号 | 41期号:2页码:645-+ |
| 关键词 | Prediction Market Fixed Odds Betting Crowd Intelligence Prospect Theory Decision Support |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Prediction markets provide a promising approach for future event prediction. Most existing prediction market approaches are based on auction mechanisms. Despite their theoretical appeal and success in various application settings, these mechanisms suffer from several major drawbacks. First, opinions from experts and amateurs are treated equally. Second, continuous attention from participants is assumed. Third, such mechanisms are subject to various forms of market manipulation. To alleviate these limitations, we propose to employ the classic fixed odds betting as an alternative prediction market mechanism. We build a structural model based on a belief-decision framework as the event probability estimator. This belief-decision framework models bettors' beliefs with mixed beta distributions and bettors' decisions with prospect theory. A maximum likelihood approach is applied to estimate the model parameters. We conducted experiments on three real-world betting datasets to evaluate our proposed approach. Experimental results show that fixed odds betting based prediction outperforms the reduced form models based on odds and betting results, and achieves a comparable performance with auction-based prediction markets. The results suggest the possibility of employing fixed odds betting as a prediction market in a variety of application contexts where the assumptions made by auction-based approaches do not hold. |
| WOS关键词 | MARKET-EFFICIENCY ; DECISION-MAKING ; INFORMATION ; FOOTBALL ; UNCERTAINTY ; ECONOMICS ; FORECASTS ; ACCURACY |
| WOS研究方向 | Computer Science ; Information Science & Library Science ; Business & Economics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000401320400015 |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China(71025001 ; Guang Dong Natural Science Foundation(2015A030313876) ; Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China(CityU 11503115) ; Peak Discipline Construction Project of Education at East China Normal University ; 71621002 ; 71572169) |
| 源URL | [http://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/15107]  |
| 专题 | 自动化研究所_复杂系统管理与控制国家重点实验室_互联网大数据与安全信息学研究中心 |
| 作者单位 | 1.East China Normal Univ, Dept Educ Informat Technol, Fac Educ, Shanghai, Peoples R China 2.City Univ Hong Kong, Dept Informat Syst, Coll Business, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China 3.Univ Arizona, Dept Management Informat Syst, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, State Key Lab Management & Control Complex Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chen, Weiyun,Li, Xin,Zeng, Daniel. MODELING FIXED ODDS BETTING FOR FUTURE EVENT PREDICTION[J]. MIS QUARTERLY,2017,41(2):645-+. |
| APA | Chen, Weiyun,Li, Xin,&Zeng, Daniel.(2017).MODELING FIXED ODDS BETTING FOR FUTURE EVENT PREDICTION.MIS QUARTERLY,41(2),645-+. |
| MLA | Chen, Weiyun,et al."MODELING FIXED ODDS BETTING FOR FUTURE EVENT PREDICTION".MIS QUARTERLY 41.2(2017):645-+. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：自动化研究所
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