Determining the structure of a radial basis function network for prediction of nonlinear hydrological time series
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Jayawardena, AW; Xu, PC ; Tsang, FL; Li, WK
|
| 刊名 | HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES
 |
| 出版日期 | 2006-02-01 |
| 卷号 | 51期号:1页码:21-44 |
| 关键词 | dynamical systems hydrological time series phase space radial basis functions |
| ISSN号 | 0262-6667 |
| 英文摘要 | A network using radial basis functions (RBFs) as the mapping function in the evolutionary equation for prediction of time series is presented. An RBF network requires the determination of the number of centres of RBFs, their receptive field widths and the linear weights of the network output layer. Traditionally, the number of centres of RBFs is fixed. In this paper, methods to estimate the widths of the receptive fields and the number of centres for the RBFs are introduced. The latter is based on the concept of the generalized degrees of freedom. The linear weights are determined by the least-squares method. The proposed method is then applied to make predictions of six sets of data: two theoretical functions that are known to become chaotic under certain parameter conditions (Henon map and Lorenz map), and four real-time series (discharge data from the Mekong River in Thailand and Laos, and from the Chao Phraya River in Thailand, and sea-surface temperature anomaly data). The results are at least one order of magnitude better than those obtained by a similar model with fixed number of centres as well as by a linear model and a stochastic model for most of the data sets. |
| WOS研究方向 | Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000235310600002 |
| 出版者 | IAHS PRESS, INST HYDROLOGY |
| 源URL | [http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/3548]  |
| 专题 | 应用数学研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Jayawardena, AW |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Hong Kong, Dept Civil Engn, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Univ Hong Kong, Dept Stat & Actuarial Sci, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jayawardena, AW,Xu, PC,Tsang, FL,et al. Determining the structure of a radial basis function network for prediction of nonlinear hydrological time series[J]. HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES,2006,51(1):21-44. |
| APA | Jayawardena, AW,Xu, PC,Tsang, FL,&Li, WK.(2006).Determining the structure of a radial basis function network for prediction of nonlinear hydrological time series.HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES,51(1),21-44. |
| MLA | Jayawardena, AW,et al."Determining the structure of a radial basis function network for prediction of nonlinear hydrological time series".HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES 51.1(2006):21-44. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：数学与系统科学研究院
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。