An empirical analysis of the dynamic programming model of stockpile acquisition strategies for China's strategic petroleum reserve
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wu, Gang1; Fan, Ying1; Liu, Lan-Cui1,2; Wei, Yi-Ming1 |
| 刊名 | ENERGY POLICY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2008-04-01 |
| 卷号 | 36期号:4页码:1470-1478 |
| 关键词 | strategic petroleum reserve uncertain dynamic programming model stockpile acquisition strategies |
| ISSN号 | 0301-4215 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2008.01.007 |
| 英文摘要 | The world's future oil price is affected by many factors. The challenge, therefore, is how to select optimal stockpile acquisition strategies to minimize the cost of maintaining a reserve. This paper provides a new method for analyzing this problem using an uncertain dynamic programming model to analyze stockpile acquisition strategies for strategic petroleum reserve. Using this model, we quantify the impact of uncertain world oil price on optimal stockpile acquisition strategies of China's strategic petroleum reserve for the period 2007-2010 and 2011-2020. Our results show that the future stockpile acquisition is related to oil prices and their probability and, if not considering the occurrence of oil supply shortage, China should at least purchase 25 million barrels when world oil price is at an optimal level. The optimal price of stockpile acquisition of every year has a stronger relationship with the probability of high price; and the optimal expected price and size of stockpile acquisition is different in each year. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
| WOS研究方向 | Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000254965800021 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/5808]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 |
| 通讯作者 | Wei, Yi-Ming |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Energy & Environm Policy Res, IPM, Beijing 100080, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing 100080, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wu, Gang,Fan, Ying,Liu, Lan-Cui,et al. An empirical analysis of the dynamic programming model of stockpile acquisition strategies for China's strategic petroleum reserve[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2008,36(4):1470-1478. |
| APA | Wu, Gang,Fan, Ying,Liu, Lan-Cui,&Wei, Yi-Ming.(2008).An empirical analysis of the dynamic programming model of stockpile acquisition strategies for China's strategic petroleum reserve.ENERGY POLICY,36(4),1470-1478. |
| MLA | Wu, Gang,et al."An empirical analysis of the dynamic programming model of stockpile acquisition strategies for China's strategic petroleum reserve".ENERGY POLICY 36.4(2008):1470-1478. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：数学与系统科学研究院
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。