Neighbourhood selection for local modelling and prediction of hydrological time series
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Jayawardena, AW; Li, WK; Xu, P
|
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2002-02-28 |
| 卷号 | 258期号:1-4页码:40-57 |
| 关键词 | local models chaos neighbourhood selection generalized degrees of freedom hydrological time series |
| ISSN号 | 0022-1694 |
| 英文摘要 | The prediction of a time series using the dynamical systems approach requires the knowledge of three parameters; the time delay, the embedding dimension and the number of nearest neighbours. In this paper, a new criterion, based on the generalized degrees of freedom, for the selection of the number of nearest neighbours needed for a better local model for time series prediction is presented. The validity of the proposed method is examined using time series, which are known to be chaotic under certain initial conditions (Lorenz map, Henon map and Logistic map), and real hydro meteorological time series (discharge data from Chao Phraya river in Thailand, Mekong river in Thailand and Laos, and sea surface temperature anomaly data). The predicted results are compared with observations, and with similar predictions obtained by using arbitrarily fixed numbers of neighbours. The results indicate superior predictive capability as measured by the mean square errors and coefficients of variation by the proposed approach when compared with the traditional approach of using a fixed number of neighbours. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000173810800003 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV |
| 源URL | [http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/18007]  |
| 专题 | 应用数学研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Jayawardena, AW |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Hong Kong, Dept Civil Engn, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China 2.Univ Hong Kong, Dept Stat & Actuarial Sci, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Appl Math, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jayawardena, AW,Li, WK,Xu, P. Neighbourhood selection for local modelling and prediction of hydrological time series[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2002,258(1-4):40-57. |
| APA | Jayawardena, AW,Li, WK,&Xu, P.(2002).Neighbourhood selection for local modelling and prediction of hydrological time series.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,258(1-4),40-57. |
| MLA | Jayawardena, AW,et al."Neighbourhood selection for local modelling and prediction of hydrological time series".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 258.1-4(2002):40-57. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：数学与系统科学研究院
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