Analysis of the prediction capability of web search data based on the HE-TDC method aEuro' prediction of the volume of daily tourism visitors
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Peng, Geng1,2; Liu, Ying1,2; Wang, Jiyuan1,2; Gu, Jifa3 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE AND SYSTEMS ENGINEERING
 |
| 出版日期 | 2017-04-01 |
| 卷号 | 26期号:2页码:163-182 |
| 关键词 | Tourism visitor volume prediction web-search data HE-TDC method Jiuzhai Valley time series Hurst exponent |
| ISSN号 | 1004-3756 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11518-016-5311-7 |
| 英文摘要 | Web search query data are obtained to reflect social spots and serve as novel economic indicators. When faced with high-dimensional query data, selecting keywords that have plausible predictive ability and can reduce dimensionality is critical. This paper presents a new integrative method that combines Hurst Exponent (HE) and Time Difference Correlation (TDC) analysis to select keywords with powerful predictive ability. The method is called the HE-TDC screening method and requires keywords with predictive ability to satisfy two characteristics, namely, high correlation and fluctuation memorability similar to the predicting target series. An empirical study is employed to predict the volume of tourism visitors in the Jiuzhai Valley scenic area. The study shows that keywords selected using HE-TDC method produce a model with better robustness and predictive ability. |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[71202115] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71172199] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71573244] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71532013] ; CCF-Tencent Open Research Fund[RAGR20150113] ; Key Project of the National Social Science Fund[14AZD044] |
| WOS研究方向 | Operations Research & Management Science |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000394023000002 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGER HEIDELBERG |
| 源URL | [http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/24771]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 |
| 通讯作者 | Liu, Ying |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Big Data Min & Knowledge Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Peng, Geng,Liu, Ying,Wang, Jiyuan,et al. Analysis of the prediction capability of web search data based on the HE-TDC method aEuro' prediction of the volume of daily tourism visitors[J]. JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE AND SYSTEMS ENGINEERING,2017,26(2):163-182. |
| APA | Peng, Geng,Liu, Ying,Wang, Jiyuan,&Gu, Jifa.(2017).Analysis of the prediction capability of web search data based on the HE-TDC method aEuro' prediction of the volume of daily tourism visitors.JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE AND SYSTEMS ENGINEERING,26(2),163-182. |
| MLA | Peng, Geng,et al."Analysis of the prediction capability of web search data based on the HE-TDC method aEuro' prediction of the volume of daily tourism visitors".JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE AND SYSTEMS ENGINEERING 26.2(2017):163-182. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：数学与系统科学研究院
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