Yearly Grain Output Predictions in China 1980-2004
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Chen, Xikang1; Guo, Ju-E2; Yang, Cuihong1
|
| 刊名 | ECONOMIC SYSTEMS RESEARCH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2008 |
| 卷号 | 20期号:2页码:139-150 |
| 关键词 | Grain output prediction Systematic Integrated Prediction Approach (SIPA) extended input-output model with assets nonlinear forecasting |
| ISSN号 | 0953-5314 |
| DOI | 10.1080/09535310802075273 |
| 英文摘要 | China has a population of 1.3 billion and grain accordingly plays a crucial role in the Chinese economy. In this paper we suggest predicting grain output mainly by factor inputs and asset holding, and present a Systematic Integrated Prediction Approach (SIPA). The key elements of SIPA are an extended input-output model with assets, nonlinear variable coefficient forecasting equations, and using the minimum sum of the absolute values. Since 1980 we have used the approach to predict the yearly national grain output of China. The prediction lead time is more than half a year. The bumper, average, and poor harvests are accurately predicted every year. The average error rate over the period 1980-2004 is 1.9%. |
| WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000207466800003 |
| 出版者 | ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/5945]  |
| 专题 | 系统科学研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Chen, Xikang |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Management, Xian 710049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chen, Xikang,Guo, Ju-E,Yang, Cuihong. Yearly Grain Output Predictions in China 1980-2004[J]. ECONOMIC SYSTEMS RESEARCH,2008,20(2):139-150. |
| APA | Chen, Xikang,Guo, Ju-E,&Yang, Cuihong.(2008).Yearly Grain Output Predictions in China 1980-2004.ECONOMIC SYSTEMS RESEARCH,20(2),139-150. |
| MLA | Chen, Xikang,et al."Yearly Grain Output Predictions in China 1980-2004".ECONOMIC SYSTEMS RESEARCH 20.2(2008):139-150. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：数学与系统科学研究院
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