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A novel mode-characteristic-based decomposition ensemble model for nuclear energy consumption forecasting

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Tang, Ling1; Wang, Shuai2; He, Kaijian1; Wang, Shouyang3
刊名ANNALS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
出版日期2015-11-01
卷号234期号:1页码:111-132
关键词Decomposition ensemble model Data-characteristic-based modeling Nuclear energy consumption forecasting Time series analysis Intelligent knowledge management
ISSN号0254-5330
DOI10.1007/s10479-014-1595-5
英文摘要We propose a novel mode-characteristic-based decomposition ensemble model for nuclear energy consumption forecasting. Our method is based on the principles of "data-characteristic-based modeling" and "decomposition and ensemble". The model improves on existing decomposition ensemble learning techniques (with "decomposition and ensemble") by using "data-characteristic-based modeling" to forecast the decomposed modes. Ensemble empirical mode decomposition is first used to decompose the original nuclear energy consumption data into a series of comparatively simple modes, reducing the complexity of the data. Then, the extracted modes are thoroughly analyzed to capture hidden data characteristics. These characteristics are used to determine appropriate forecasting models for each mode. Final forecasts are obtained by combining these predicted components using an effective ensemble tool, such as least squares support vector regression. For illustration and verification purposes, we have implemented the proposed model to forecast nuclear energy consumption in China. Our numerical results demonstrate that the novel method significantly outperforms all considered benchmarks. This indicates that it is a very promising tool for forecasting complex and irregular data such as nuclear energy consumption.
资助项目National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars (NSFC)[71025005] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[71301006] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[71201054] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[91224001] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities in BUCT[ZY1320] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities in BUCT[ZZ1315]
WOS研究方向Operations Research & Management Science
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000362683600008
出版者SPRINGER
源URL[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/20993]  
专题系统科学研究所
通讯作者Wang, Shuai
作者单位1.Beijing Univ Chem Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, NCMIS, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Tang, Ling,Wang, Shuai,He, Kaijian,et al. A novel mode-characteristic-based decomposition ensemble model for nuclear energy consumption forecasting[J]. ANNALS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH,2015,234(1):111-132.
APA Tang, Ling,Wang, Shuai,He, Kaijian,&Wang, Shouyang.(2015).A novel mode-characteristic-based decomposition ensemble model for nuclear energy consumption forecasting.ANNALS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH,234(1),111-132.
MLA Tang, Ling,et al."A novel mode-characteristic-based decomposition ensemble model for nuclear energy consumption forecasting".ANNALS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH 234.1(2015):111-132.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：数学与系统科学研究院

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