Improving Forecasting Performance by Exploiting Expert Knowledge: Evidence from Guangzhou Port
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Huang, Anqiang1; Qiao, Han2; Wang, Shouyang3 ; Liu, John4
|
| 刊名 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & DECISION MAKING
 |
| 出版日期 | 2016-03-01 |
| 卷号 | 15期号:2页码:387-401 |
| 关键词 | Container throughput forecast expert knowledge subjective judgment |
| ISSN号 | 0219-6220 |
| DOI | 10.1142/S0219622016500085 |
| 英文摘要 | Expert knowledge has been proved by substantial studies to be contributory to higher forecasting performance; meanwhile, its application is criticized and opposed by some groups for biases and inconsistency inherent in experts' subjective judgment. This paper proposes a new approach to improving forecasting performance, which takes advantage of expert knowledge by constructing a constraint equation rather than directly adjusting the predicted values by experts. For the comparison purpose, the proposed approach, together with several widely used models including ARIMA, BP-ANN and the judgment model (JM), is applied to forecasting the container throughput of Guangzhou Port, which is one of the most important ports of China. Forecasting performances of the above models are compared and the results clearly show superiority of the proposed approach over its rivals, which implies that expert knowledge will make positive contribution as long as it is used in a right way. |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[71373262] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71390330] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71390331] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71390334] ; Fundamental Research Funds for Central Universities[B15JB00040] |
| WOS研究方向 | Computer Science ; Operations Research & Management Science |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000372548000007 |
| 出版者 | WORLD SCIENTIFIC PUBL CO PTE LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/22348]  |
| 专题 | 系统科学研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Qiao, Han |
| 作者单位 | 1.Beijing Jiaotong Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100044, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 4.City Univ Hong Kong, Coll Business, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Huang, Anqiang,Qiao, Han,Wang, Shouyang,et al. Improving Forecasting Performance by Exploiting Expert Knowledge: Evidence from Guangzhou Port[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & DECISION MAKING,2016,15(2):387-401. |
| APA | Huang, Anqiang,Qiao, Han,Wang, Shouyang,&Liu, John.(2016).Improving Forecasting Performance by Exploiting Expert Knowledge: Evidence from Guangzhou Port.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & DECISION MAKING,15(2),387-401. |
| MLA | Huang, Anqiang,et al."Improving Forecasting Performance by Exploiting Expert Knowledge: Evidence from Guangzhou Port".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & DECISION MAKING 15.2(2016):387-401. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：数学与系统科学研究院
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