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Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP: A new semi-closed input-output model

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Chen, Quanrun1; Dietzenbacher, Erik2; Los, Bart2; Yang, Cuihong3
刊名ECONOMIC MODELLING
出版日期2016-11-01
卷号58页码:52-63
关键词Input-output model Household consumption Multiplier effect Government spending
ISSN号0264-9993
DOI10.1016/j.econmod.2016.05.016
英文摘要In this study, we propose a new semi-closed input-output model, which reconciles input-output analysis with modern consumption theories. It can simulate changes in household consumption behavior when exogenous stimulus policies lead to higher disposable income levels. It is useful for quantifying the short-run effects of fiscal stimuli on GDP and its industry-level value added components. We illustrate the use of the model by estimating the short-run effect of the 4 trillion yuan stimulus package on China's GDP. Our results show that this stimulus package might have led to an increase in GDP of more than 3 trillion yuan, which is 9.5% of China's GDP in 2008. This result compares well to actual changes in GDP as observed in the years immediately after the introduction of the package. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[71201162] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71125005] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[61273208]
WOS研究方向Business & Economics
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000382593000005
出版者ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
源URL[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/23510]  
专题系统科学研究所
通讯作者Chen, Quanrun
作者单位1.Univ Int Business & Econ, Sch Stat, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
2.Univ Groningen, Fac Econ & Business, POB 800, NL-9700 AV Groningen, Netherlands
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Chen, Quanrun,Dietzenbacher, Erik,Los, Bart,et al. Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP: A new semi-closed input-output model[J]. ECONOMIC MODELLING,2016,58:52-63.
APA Chen, Quanrun,Dietzenbacher, Erik,Los, Bart,&Yang, Cuihong.(2016).Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP: A new semi-closed input-output model.ECONOMIC MODELLING,58,52-63.
MLA Chen, Quanrun,et al."Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP: A new semi-closed input-output model".ECONOMIC MODELLING 58(2016):52-63.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：数学与系统科学研究院

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