Analysis of road transportation energy consumption demand in China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Chai, Jian1,2,3,4; Lu, Quan-Ying1,2; Wang, Shou-Yang4 ; Lai, Kin Keung1,2,5
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| 刊名 | TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART D-TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT
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| 出版日期 | 2016-10-01 |
| 卷号 | 48页码:112-124 |
| 关键词 | Road transportation energy consumption Trend analysis Path analysis BMA ETS ARIMA |
| ISSN号 | 1361-9209 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.trd.2016.08.009 |
| 英文摘要 | In this paper, we first analyze the historical trends in road transportation energy consumption and GDP in developed economies to find out the development characteristics of road energy consumption. The two indexes present obvious 'S' type patterns. Then, in order to explore the current status and future trend of road energy transportation in China, we employ path analysis to analyze the impact mechanism of the factors related to road transportation energy consumption. Next, we adopt the BMA model to select the core factors related to road transportation energy consumption in China, and on the basis of the model selection as well as univariate (ETS & ARIMA models) and multivariate (multiple regression) models, the road transportation energy consumption is analyzed and forecast. The results showed that the road transportation energy consumption rises by 0.33 percent for every percent increase in GDP and by 1.26 percentage points for every percent increase in urbanization. The road transportation energy consumption in China is expected to reach around 226181.1 ktoe by the end of 2015, and about 347,363 ktoe by 2020. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[71473155] ; New Star of Youth Science and Technology Plan Project in Shaanxi Province, China[2016KJXX-14] ; Shaanxi Normal University College Basic Scientific Research Special Support Project[14SZTZ03] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Transportation |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000384853700009 |
| 出版者 | PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/23790]  |
| 专题 | 系统科学研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Lu, Quan-Ying |
| 作者单位 | 1.Shaanxi Normal Univ, Int Business Sch, 199 South Changan Rd, Xian 710062, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 2.Shaanxi Normal Univ, Inst Cross Proc Percept & Control, Xian 710119, Peoples R China 3.Xidian Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Xian 710071, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 5.City Univ Hong Kong, Dept Management Sci, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chai, Jian,Lu, Quan-Ying,Wang, Shou-Yang,et al. Analysis of road transportation energy consumption demand in China[J]. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART D-TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT,2016,48:112-124. |
| APA | Chai, Jian,Lu, Quan-Ying,Wang, Shou-Yang,&Lai, Kin Keung.(2016).Analysis of road transportation energy consumption demand in China.TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART D-TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT,48,112-124. |
| MLA | Chai, Jian,et al."Analysis of road transportation energy consumption demand in China".TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART D-TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT 48(2016):112-124. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：数学与系统科学研究院
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