The future natural gas consumption in China: Based on the LMDI-STIRPAT-PLSR framework and scenario analysis
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Chai, Jian1,4; Liang, Ting2; Lai, Kin Keung1,3; Zhang, Zhe George4; Wang, Shouyang5
|
| 刊名 | ENERGY POLICY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2018-08-01 |
| 卷号 | 119页码:215-225 |
| 关键词 | Natural gas consumption LMDI decomposition STIRPAT model PLS regression Scenario analysis |
| ISSN号 | 0301-4215 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.049 |
| 英文摘要 | Due to the growing pollution concerns in China, there have been major efforts to design interrelated environmental protection policies. As the policy of reducing coal consumption is implemented, China's natural gas consumption is expected to commensurately rise. Such a trend may lead to the significant impacts on China's energy security and the global gas market. This paper empirically investigates the relationship between the natural gas consumption and influencing factors in a comprehensive LMDI-STIRPAT-PLSR framework. It is found that fossil energy structure and non-clean energy structure are the most important factors followed by urbanization, per capita GDP, industrialization, and industrial energy intensity. And then, these factors from LMDI decomposition are innovatively divided into economic development and cleaning indicators when using scenario analysis to forecast China's natural gas consumption. The prediction results suggest that economic development with high clean energy system would make a significant increase in gas consumption, a commensurate increase in demand even the system of economic-energy under scenario of low economic development and low clean. As China would depend on gas imports to meet this demand, there may be a serious supply shortage by 2020. Therefore, the government should consider the future energy security issue in making economic and environmental policies. |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[71473155] ; New Star of Youth Science and Technology Plan Project in Shaanxi Province, China[2016KJXX-14] ; 2016 Annual Basic Scientific Research Project of Xidian University[JB160603] |
| WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000439671200021 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/30794]  |
| 专题 | 系统科学研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Liang, Ting |
| 作者单位 | 1.Xidian Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Xian 710126, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 2.Hunan Univ, Sch Business, Changsha 410082, Hunan, Peoples R China 3.City Univ Hong Kong, Dept Management Sci, Hong Kong 999077, Hong Kong, Peoples R China 4.Western Washington Univ, Coll Business & Econ, Bellingham, WA 98225 USA 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chai, Jian,Liang, Ting,Lai, Kin Keung,et al. The future natural gas consumption in China: Based on the LMDI-STIRPAT-PLSR framework and scenario analysis[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2018,119:215-225. |
| APA | Chai, Jian,Liang, Ting,Lai, Kin Keung,Zhang, Zhe George,&Wang, Shouyang.(2018).The future natural gas consumption in China: Based on the LMDI-STIRPAT-PLSR framework and scenario analysis.ENERGY POLICY,119,215-225. |
| MLA | Chai, Jian,et al."The future natural gas consumption in China: Based on the LMDI-STIRPAT-PLSR framework and scenario analysis".ENERGY POLICY 119(2018):215-225. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：数学与系统科学研究院
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。