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Relationships between Optimal Precursors Triggering NAO Onset and Optimally Growing Initial Errors during NAO Prediction

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Dai, Guokun1,2; Mu, Mu3; Jiang, Zhina4
刊名JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
出版日期2016
卷号73期号:1页码:293-317
ISSN号0022-4928
DOI10.1175/JAS-D-15-0109.1
文献子类Article
英文摘要Based on a viewpoint that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a nonlinear initial-value problem, the predictability of NAO event onset is studied through investigation of the relationship between the optimal precursor (OPR) to its onset and the optimally growing initial error (OGE) in onset prediction. The problem is explored by the method of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation with a triangular T21, three-level, quasigeostrophic global spectral model.For the NAO onset, there are two types of OGEs. Numerical results show that, with the optimization time of 3 days, a type-1 OGE bears a great resemblance to OPR, and the similarity coefficient between them is 0.98 for both positive (NAO+) and negative NAO (NAO-). A type-2 OGE is also characterized by a similar pattern to OPR, but with an opposite sign. With the extension of the optimization time to 7 days, the similarity coefficient between OPR and type-1 (type 2) OGE gradually decreases to 0.82 (-0.81) for NAO- and 0.87 (-0.57) for NAO+. However, in the linear regime, such high similarity between OPR and OGE can only be found with an optimization time of 3 days.Further analysis reveals that a type-1 (type 2) OGE has a similar growth behavior to that of the corresponding OPR of the same-phase (opposite phase) NAO event, both of which develop into a dipole NAO anomaly pattern. This similarity between OPR and OGE suggests that the nonlinear process plays an important role in the NAO event, which simultaneously provides a theoretical foundation for its targeted observations.
WOS关键词NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ; NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATION ; FREQUENCY DIPOLE MODES ; WEATHER REGIME TRANSITIONS ; QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC MODEL ; KUROSHIO LARGE MEANDER ; ANNULAR MODES ; EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; HEMISPHERE WINTER
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000367398300001
出版者AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China(41230420) ; National Key Basic Research and Development (973) Project(2012CB417200)
源URL[http://ir.qibebt.ac.cn/handle/337004/10447]  
专题中国科学院青岛生物能源与过程研究所
通讯作者Jiang, Zhina
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weather, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Dai, Guokun,Mu, Mu,Jiang, Zhina. Relationships between Optimal Precursors Triggering NAO Onset and Optimally Growing Initial Errors during NAO Prediction[J]. JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,2016,73(1):293-317.
APA Dai, Guokun,Mu, Mu,&Jiang, Zhina.(2016).Relationships between Optimal Precursors Triggering NAO Onset and Optimally Growing Initial Errors during NAO Prediction.JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,73(1),293-317.
MLA Dai, Guokun,et al."Relationships between Optimal Precursors Triggering NAO Onset and Optimally Growing Initial Errors during NAO Prediction".JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 73.1(2016):293-317.

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来源：青岛生物能源与过程研究所

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