Assessment of climate change trends over the Loess Plateau in China from 1901 to 2100
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Yunming Chen1,3; Chen, YM (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, 26 Xinong Rd, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.; Shouzhang Peng1,3; Chengcheng Gang1,3; Yang Cao1,3; Chen, YM (reprint author), Minist Water Resources, 26 Xinong Rd, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China. |
| 刊名 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2018 |
| 卷号 | 38期号:5页码:2250-2264 |
| ISSN号 | 0899-8418 |
| 关键词 | Climate Change Delta Downscaling Mann-kendall Trend Test Sen's Slope Estimator Loess Plateau |
| DOI | 10.1002/joc.5331 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | The Loess Plateau (LP) in China is sensitive to climate change because of its fragile ecological environment and geographic features. This study presents a detailed assessment of the climate change trends over the LP from 1901 to 2100 based on the 1-km spatial resolution climate data generated through delta downscaling. The following results are drawn: (1) Delta downscaling performs well in detecting the monthly precipitation and temperature over the LP based on the mean absolute error between downscaled data and independent surface observations. Among the 28 general circulation models, the GFDL-ESM2M and NorESM1-M models show the best performance in reproducing the monthly precipitation and temperature in the future period, respectively. (2) The annual precipitation over the entire LP shows no significant trends in the historical and future periods. By contrast, the annual temperature shows a significantly increasing trend with 0.097 degrees C/10 year in the historical period (1901-2014) and with 0.113, 0.24, 0.355, and 0.558 degrees C/10 year in the future period (2015-2100) under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. (3) The significantly increasing trends in precipitation and temperature at each grid of the LP present various spatial distributions in terms of their magnitude. The significant trend magnitude calculated by the downscaled data has a larger range and a higher percentage of area - and is even observed at a small area-compared with that calculated by the raw data. (4) The spatial results calculated by the downscaled data provide more detailed information about the locations and percentages of area, both of which are valuable in assessing the change trends in precipitation and temperature. These spatio-temporal results present the climate change trends over the LP in detail and provide valuable insights for developing flexible adaptation and mitigation strategies to address the climate change challenges in this region. |
| 学科主题 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 出版地 | 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | WILEY |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000428880600009 |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China [41601058, 31602004] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China [41601058, 31602004] ; CAS 'Light of West China' Program [XAB2015B07] ; CAS 'Light of West China' Program [XAB2015B07] ; China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest [GYHY201506001-3] ; China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest [GYHY201506001-3] ; key cultivation project of Chinese Academy of Sciences 'The promotion and management of ecosystem functions of restored vegetation in Loess Plateau, China' ; key cultivation project of Chinese Academy of Sciences 'The promotion and management of ecosystem functions of restored vegetation in Loess Plateau, China' ; National Natural Science Foundation of China [41601058, 31602004] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China [41601058, 31602004] ; CAS 'Light of West China' Program [XAB2015B07] ; CAS 'Light of West China' Program [XAB2015B07] ; China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest [GYHY201506001-3] ; China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest [GYHY201506001-3] ; key cultivation project of Chinese Academy of Sciences 'The promotion and management of ecosystem functions of restored vegetation in Loess Plateau, China' ; key cultivation project of Chinese Academy of Sciences 'The promotion and management of ecosystem functions of restored vegetation in Loess Plateau, China' |
| 源URL | [http://ir.iswc.ac.cn/handle/361005/8268]  |
| 专题 | 水保所科研产出--SCI_2018--SCI |
| 通讯作者 | Chen, YM (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, 26 Xinong Rd, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.; Chen, YM (reprint author), Minist Water Resources, 26 Xinong Rd, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China. |
| 作者单位 | 1.Northwest A&F Univ, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Yangling, Peoples R China 2.Minist Water Resources, 26 Xinong Rd, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, 26 Xinong Rd, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yunming Chen,Chen, YM ,Shouzhang Peng,et al. Assessment of climate change trends over the Loess Plateau in China from 1901 to 2100[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(5):2250-2264. |
| APA | Yunming Chen,Chen, YM ,Shouzhang Peng,Chengcheng Gang,Yang Cao,&Chen, YM .(2018).Assessment of climate change trends over the Loess Plateau in China from 1901 to 2100.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(5),2250-2264. |
| MLA | Yunming Chen,et al."Assessment of climate change trends over the Loess Plateau in China from 1901 to 2100".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.5(2018):2250-2264. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：水土保持研究所
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