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A novel seasonal decomposition based least squares support vector regression ensemble learning approach for hydropower consumption forecasting in China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wang, S; Yu, L; Tang, L; Wang, SY |
| 刊名 | ENERGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2011 |
| 卷号 | 36期号:11页码:13,6542-6554 |
| 关键词 | Hydropower Consumption Forecasting Lssvr Ensemble Learning Seasonal Decomposition |
| ISSN号 | 0360-5442 |
| 英文摘要 | Due to the distinct seasonal characteristics of hydropower, this study tries to propose a seasonal decomposition (SD) based least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) ensemble learning model for Chinese hydropower consumption forecasting. In the formulation of ensemble learning model, the original hydropower consumption series are first decomposed into trend cycle, seasonal factor and irregular component. Then the LSSVR with the radial basis function (RBF) kernel is used to predict the three different components independently. Finally, these prediction results of the three components are combined with another LSSVR to formulate an ensemble result for the original hydropower consumption series. In terms of error measurements and statistic test on the forecasting performance, the proposed approach outperforms all the other benchmark methods listed in this study in both level accuracy and directional accuracy. Experimental results reveal that the proposed SD-based LSSVR ensemble learning paradigm is a very promising approach for complex time series forecasting with seasonality. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
| 学科主题 | Thermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000297894500028 |
| 公开日期 | 2012-11-12 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.casipm.ac.cn/handle/190111/4255]  |
| 专题 | 科技战略咨询研究院_中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所(1985年6月-2015年12月) |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, S,Yu, L,Tang, L,et al. A novel seasonal decomposition based least squares support vector regression ensemble learning approach for hydropower consumption forecasting in China[J]. ENERGY,2011,36(11):13,6542-6554. |
| APA | Wang, S,Yu, L,Tang, L,&Wang, SY.(2011).A novel seasonal decomposition based least squares support vector regression ensemble learning approach for hydropower consumption forecasting in China.ENERGY,36(11),13,6542-6554. |
| MLA | Wang, S,et al."A novel seasonal decomposition based least squares support vector regression ensemble learning approach for hydropower consumption forecasting in China".ENERGY 36.11(2011):13,6542-6554. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：科技战略咨询研究院
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