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Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhao, C (Zhao, Chuang)1; Liu, B (Liu, Bing)2,3,4,5,6; Piao, SL (Piao, Shilong)1,7,8; Wang, XH (Wang, Xuhui)1; Lobell, DB (Lobell, David B.)9; Huang, Y (Huang, Yao)10; Huang, MT (Huang, Mengtian)1; Yao, YT (Yao, Yitong)1; Bassu, S (Bassu, Simona)11; Ciais, P (Ciais, Philippe)12 |
| 刊名 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
 |
| 出版日期 | 2017 |
| 卷号 | 114期号:35页码:9326-9331 |
| 关键词 | Climate-change Wheat Yields Impacts Growth Range China Food |
| DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1701762114 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multi-method analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop-and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population. |
| 学科主题 | 普通生物学 |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000408536000041 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.itpcas.ac.cn/handle/131C11/8001]  |
| 专题 | 青藏高原研究所_图书馆 |
| 通讯作者 | Piao, SL; Asseng, S |
| 作者单位 | 1.Peking Univ, Sino French Inst Earth Syst Sci, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China. 2.Nanjing Agr Univ, Natl Engn & Technol Ctr Informat Agr, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China. 3.Nanjing Agr Univ, Key Lab Crop Syst Anal & Decis Making, Minist Agr, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China. 4.Nanjing Agr Univ, Jiangsu Key Lab Informat Agr, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China. 5.Nanjing Agr Univ, Jiangsu Collaborat Innovat Ctr Modern Crop Prod, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China. 6.Univ Florida, Agr & Biol Engn Dept, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. 7.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Alpine Ecol & Biodivers, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China. 8.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Excellence Tibetan Earth Sci, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China. 9.Stanford Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Ctr Food Secur & Environm, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. 10.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, State Key Lab Vegetat & Environm Change, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China. |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhao, C ,Liu, B ,Piao, SL ,et al. Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2017,114(35):9326-9331. |
| APA | Zhao, C .,Liu, B .,Piao, SL .,Wang, XH .,Lobell, DB .,...&Asseng, S.(2017).Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,114(35),9326-9331. |
| MLA | Zhao, C ,et al."Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 114.35(2017):9326-9331. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：青藏高原研究所
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