Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhao, C (Zhao, Chuang)1; Piao, SL (Piao, Shilong)1,2,3; Wang, XH (Wang, Xuhui); Huang, Y (Huang, Yao)4; Ciais, P (Ciais, Philippe)5; Elliott, J (Elliott, Joshua)6; Huang, MT (Huang, Mengtian)1; Janssens, IA (Janssens, Ivan A.)7; Li, T (Li, Tao)8; Lian, X (Lian, Xu)1 |
| 刊名 | NATURE PLANTS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2017 |
| 卷号 | 3期号:1页码:16202 |
| 关键词 | INFRARED HEATER CARBON-DIOXIDE FOOD SECURITY CROP YIELDS IMPACT METAANALYSIS ADAPTATION ECOSYSTEM MODELS MAIZE |
| DOI | 10.1038/nplants.2016.202 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Rice is the staple food for more than 50% of the world's population1-3. Reliable prediction of changes in rice yield is thus central for maintaining global food security. This is an extraordinary challenge. Here, we compare the sensitivity of rice yield to temperature increase derived from field warming experiments and three modelling approaches: statistical models, local crop models and global gridded crop models. Field warming experiments produce a substantial rice yield loss under warming, with an average temperature sensitivity of -5.2 +/- 1.4% K-1. Local crop models give a similar sensitivity (-6.3 +/- 0.4% K-1), but statistical and global gridded crop models both suggest less negative impacts of warming on yields (-0.8 +/- 0.3% and -2.4 +/- 3.7% K-1, respectively). Using data from field warming experiments, we further propose a conditional probability approach to constrain the large range of global gridded crop model results for the future yield changes in response to warming by the end of the century (from -1.3% to -9.3% K-1). The constraint implies a more negative response to warming (-8.3 +/- 1.4% K-1) and reduces the spread of the model ensemble by 33%. This yield reduction exceeds that estimated by the International Food Policy Research Institute assessment (-4.2 to -6.4% K-1) (ref. 4). Our study suggests that without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation and genetic improvement, severe rice yield losses are plausible under intensive climate warming scenarios. |
| 学科主题 | 普通生物学 |
| WOS研究方向 | Plant Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000395899200004 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.itpcas.ac.cn/handle/131C11/8395]  |
| 专题 | 青藏高原研究所_图书馆 |
| 通讯作者 | Piao, SL |
| 作者单位 | 1.Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Sino French Inst Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China. 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Alpine Ecol & Biodivers, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China. 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Excellence Tibetan Earth Sci, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China. 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, State Key Lab Vegetat & Environm Change, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China. 5.UVSQ, CNRS, CEA, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France. 6.Univ Chicago, Computat Inst, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. 7.Univ Antwerp, Dept Biol, Univ Pl 1, B-2610 Antwerp, Belgium. 8.Int Rice Res Inst, Los Banos 4031, Laguna, Philippines. 9.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany. 10.CREAF, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain. |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhao, C ,Piao, SL ,Wang, XH ,et al. Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming[J]. NATURE PLANTS,2017,3(1):16202. |
| APA | Zhao, C .,Piao, SL .,Wang, XH .,Huang, Y .,Ciais, P .,...&Piao, SL.(2017).Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming.NATURE PLANTS,3(1),16202. |
| MLA | Zhao, C ,et al."Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming".NATURE PLANTS 3.1(2017):16202. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：青藏高原研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。