Multi-Agent Modeling and Simulation of Farmland Use Change in a Farming-Pastoral Zone: A Case Study of Qianjingou Town in Inner Mongolia, China
文献类型：SCI/SSCI论文
| 作者 | Bai X. H.; Yan, H. M.; Pan, L. H.; Huang, H. Q. |
| 发表日期 | 2015 |
| 关键词 | farmland coupled human-nature system multi-agent modeling Repast household typology Inner Mongolia agent-based models land-cover change livelihood strategies natural systems human decisions coupled human management trajectories agriculture landscape |
| 英文摘要 | Farmland is the most basic material condition for guaranteeing rural livelihoods and national food security, and exploring management strategies that take both stable rural livelihoods and sustainable farmland use into account has vital significance in theory and practice. Farmland is a complex and self-adaptive system that couples human and natural systems, and natural and social factors that are related to its changing process need to be considered when modeling farmland changing processes. This paper uses Qianjingou Town in the Inner Mongolian farming-pastoral zone as a study area. From the perspective of the relationship between household livelihood and farmland use, this study establishes the process mechanism of farmland use change based on questionnaire data, and constructs a multi-agent simulation model of farmland use change using the Eclipse and Repast toolbox. Through simulating the relationship between natural factors (including geographical location) and household behavior, this paper systematically simulates household farmland abandonment and rent behaviors, and accurately describes the dynamic interactions between household livelihoods and the factors related to farmland use change. These factors include natural factors (net primary productivity, road accessibility, slope and relief amplitude) and social factors (household family structures, economic development and government policies). Ultimately, this study scientifically predicts the future farmland use change trend in the next 30 years. The simulation results show that the number of abandoned and sublet farmland plots has a gradually increasing trend, and the number of non-farming households and pure-outworking households has a remarkable increasing trend, whereas the number of part-farming households and pure-farming households has a decreasing trend. Household livelihood sustainability in the study area is confronted with increasing pressure, and household non-farm employment has an increasing trend, while regional appropriate-scale agricultural management is maintained. The research results establish the theoretical foundation and a basic method for developing sustainable farmland use management that can meet the willingness of households and guarantee grain and ecological security. |
| 出处 | Sustainability |
| 卷 | 7 |
| 期 | 11 |
| 页 | 14802-14833 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| ISSN号 | 2071-1050 |
| DOI标识 | 10.3390/su71114802 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/43507]  |
| 专题 | 地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bai X. H.,Yan, H. M.,Pan, L. H.,et al. Multi-Agent Modeling and Simulation of Farmland Use Change in a Farming-Pastoral Zone: A Case Study of Qianjingou Town in Inner Mongolia, China. 2015. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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