Projections of aridity and its regional variability over China in the mid-21st century
文献类型：SCI/SSCI论文
| 作者 | Yin Y. H.; Ma, D. Y.; Wu, S. H.; Pan, T. |
| 发表日期 | 2015 |
| 关键词 | aridity China regional variability climate models evapotranspiration climate-change impacts potential evapotranspiration changes conterminous united-states pan evaporation trends earth system model isi-mip multimodel ensemble future projections tibetan plateau global drylands |
| 英文摘要 | The effects of aridity on ecosystems and water cycles are pronounced and have received considerable attention. However, aridity changes due to future warming and its regional variability over China remain uncertain. This paper aims to identify the spatiotemporal variations in aridity and its key influencing factors over China in the mid-21st century based on five general circulationmodels (GCMs) and four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. An aridity index (AI), defined as the ratio of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) to precipitation (P), was calculated. We show that the GCM ensemble means are able to reproduce the variation of aridity during the baseline period. Generally, ETo anomalies are consistently positive. Other than for the RCP2.6 low-emission scenario, precipitation and aridity are both projected to increase. There are pronounced regional differences in aridity changes; i.e. wetter across most of western China and drier across most of eastern China in the mid-21st century. Negative AI anomalies in western China can be attributed mainly to the projected increase in precipitation. In eastern China, the AI was higher despite positive precipitation anomalies, due mainly to the greater effect of climate change on increasing atmospheric moisture demand. This suggests that evapotranspiration demand should be incorporated into aridity changes under future warming. |
| 出处 | International Journal of Climatology |
| 卷 | 35 |
| 期 | 14 |
| 页 | 4387-4398 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| ISSN号 | 0899-8418 |
| DOI标识 | 10.1002/joc.4295 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/43592]  |
| 专题 | 地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yin Y. H.,Ma, D. Y.,Wu, S. H.,et al. Projections of aridity and its regional variability over China in the mid-21st century. 2015. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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