Case study for investigating groundwater and the future of mountain spring discharges in Southern Italy
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Nazzareno DIODATO; Gianni BELLOCCHI; Francesco FIORILLO; Gerardo VENTAFRIDDA |
| 刊名 | Journal of Mountain Science
 |
| 出版日期 | 2017-09 |
| 卷号 | 14期号:9页码:1791-1800 |
| 关键词 | Caposele (Italy) Ground Water Drought Ensemble Forecast Exponential Smoothing Spring Discharge |
| ISSN号 | 1672-6316 |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-017-4445-5 |
| 通讯作者 | Gianni BELLOCCHI |
| 文献子类 | 期刊论文 |
| 英文摘要 | Groundwater extraction is used to alleviate drought in many habitats. However, widespread drought decreases spring discharge and there is a need to integrate climate change research into resource management and action. Accurate estimates of groundwater discharge may be valuable in improving decision support systems of hydrogeological resource exploitation. The present study performs a forecast for groundwater discharge in Aquifer's Cervialto Mountains (southern Italy). A time series starting in 1883 was the basis for long-term predictions. An Ensemble Discharge Prediction (EDisP) was applied, and the progress of the discharge ensemble forecast was inferred with the aid of an Exponential Smoothing (ES) model initialized at different annual times. EDisP-ES hindcast model experiments were tested, and discharge plume-patterns forecast was assessed with horizon placed in the year 2044. A 46-year cycle pattern was identified by comparing simulations and observations, which is essential for the forecasting purpose. ED is P-ES performed an ensemble mean path for the coming decades that indicates a discharge regime within ± 1 standard deviation around the mean value of 4.1 m3 s-1. These fluctuations are comparable with those observed in the period 1961-1980 and further back, with change-points detectable around the years 2025 and 2035. Temporary drought conditions are expected after the year 2030. |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/19075]  |
| 专题 | Journal of Mountain Science _Journal of Mountain Science-2017_Vol14 No.9 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nazzareno DIODATO,Gianni BELLOCCHI,Francesco FIORILLO,et al. Case study for investigating groundwater and the future of mountain spring discharges in Southern Italy[J]. Journal of Mountain Science,2017,14(9):1791-1800. |
| APA | Nazzareno DIODATO,Gianni BELLOCCHI,Francesco FIORILLO,&Gerardo VENTAFRIDDA.(2017).Case study for investigating groundwater and the future of mountain spring discharges in Southern Italy.Journal of Mountain Science,14(9),1791-1800. |
| MLA | Nazzareno DIODATO,et al."Case study for investigating groundwater and the future of mountain spring discharges in Southern Italy".Journal of Mountain Science 14.9(2017):1791-1800. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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