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Monte Carlo sampling for error propagation in linear regression and applications in isochron geochronology

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Li, Yang1,2,3; Zhang, Shuang3; Hobbs, Richard2; Caiado, Camila4; Sproson, Adam D.2,5; Selby, David2; Rooney, Alan D.3
刊名SCIENCE BULLETIN
出版日期2019-02-15
卷号64期号:3页码:189-197
关键词Linear regression Isochron Geochronology Uncertainty propagation Monte Carlo Isoplot
ISSN号2095-9273
DOI10.1016/j.scib.2018.12.019
英文摘要Geochronology is essential for understanding Earth's history. The availability of precise and accurate isotopic data is increasing; hence it is crucial to develop transparent and accessible data reduction techniques and tools to transform raw mass spectrometry data into robust chronological data. Here we present a Monte Carlo sampling approach to fully propagate uncertainties from linear regressions for isochron dating. Our new approach makes no prior assumption about the causes of variability in the derived chronological results and propagates uncertainties from both experimental measurements (analytical uncertainties) and underlying assumptions (model uncertainties) into the final age determination. Using synthetic examples, we find that although the estimates of the slope and y-intercept (hence age and initial isotopic ratios) are comparable between the Monte Carlo method and the benchmark ``Isoplot" algorithm, uncertainties from the later could be underestimated by up to 60%, which are likely due to an incomplete propagation of model uncertainties. An additional advantage of the new method is its ability to integrate with geological information to yield refined chronological constraints. The new method presented here is specifically designed to fully propagate errors in geochronological applications involves linear regressions such as Rb-Sr, Sm-Nd, Re-Os, Pt-Os, Lu-Hf, U-Pb (with discordant points), Pb-Pb and Ar-Ar. (C) 2018 Science China Press. Published by Elsevier B.V. and Science China Press. All rights reserved.
WOS关键词CALIBRATION ; AGES ; STANDARDS ; ACCURACY ; OSMIUM
资助项目State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences[SKL-K201706] ; Yale University
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000460873100008
出版者ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
资助机构State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Yale University ; Yale University ; State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Yale University ; Yale University ; State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Yale University ; Yale University ; State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Yale University ; Yale University
源URL[http://ir.iggcas.ac.cn/handle/132A11/90909]  
专题地质与地球物理研究所_岩石圈演化国家重点实验室
通讯作者Li, Yang
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Lithospher Evolut, Inst Geol & Geophys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
2.Univ Durham, Dept Earth Sci, Durham DH1 3LE, England
3.Yale Univ, Dept Geol & Geophys, POB 6666, New Haven, CT 06511 USA
4.Univ Durham, Dept Math Sci, Durham DH1 3LE, England
5.Univ Tokyo, Atmosphere & Ocean Res Inst, 5-1-5 Kashiwa No Ha, Kashiwa, Chiba 2778564, Japan
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Li, Yang,Zhang, Shuang,Hobbs, Richard,et al. Monte Carlo sampling for error propagation in linear regression and applications in isochron geochronology[J]. SCIENCE BULLETIN,2019,64(3):189-197.
APA Li, Yang.,Zhang, Shuang.,Hobbs, Richard.,Caiado, Camila.,Sproson, Adam D..,...&Rooney, Alan D..(2019).Monte Carlo sampling for error propagation in linear regression and applications in isochron geochronology.SCIENCE BULLETIN,64(3),189-197.
MLA Li, Yang,et al."Monte Carlo sampling for error propagation in linear regression and applications in isochron geochronology".SCIENCE BULLETIN 64.3(2019):189-197.

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来源：地质与地球物理研究所

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