气候波动下开都河流域的水文响应模拟及其不确定性分析
文献类型：学位论文
| 作者 | 田霖 |
| 答辩日期 | 2017-05-01 |
| 文献子类 | 硕士 |
| 授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 授予地点 | 新疆乌鲁木齐 |
| 导师 | 刘铁 ; 包安明 |
| 关键词 | 水文模型 再分析数据 气候波动 不确定性 hydrologic model reanalysis data climate change uncertainty |
| 学位专业 | 理学硕士 |
| 英文摘要 | The socio-economic and ecological problems caused by climate change haveattracted worldwide attention. The arid region of central Asia is a typical ecologicallyfragile area, and its water resources are sensitive to climate change response. In thispaper, the Kaidu river basin in the typical mountainous region of Central Asia wastaken as the study area. Firstly, the applicability of CFSR reanalysis data in themodeling of arid mountainous hydrologic process was discussed. LOCI, Gamma andgamLOCI methods were used to correct for the bias of CFSR precipitation data, andthe daily runoff simulation results of the three methods were compared. Secondly,driven by the GCMs data and the statistical downscaling method, the hydrologicalmodel of the Kaidu river basin was used to simulate the hydrological response in theRCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Finally, four kinds of GCMs were used as the rainfallinput data, and three kinds of hydrological models to simulate the runoff. Theuncertainty among the input data, model structure and model parameters wasanalyzed in the whole technical route. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) Compared with the observation, the overestimation for light rainfall andunderestimation for heavy rainfall of CFSR dataset were significant in Kaikong riverbasin. CFSR dataset is likely to underestimate heavy rainfall in high-altitudemountainous areas and to overestimate light rainfall in plains. There are too manysmall precipitation events for CFSR data both in high-altitude mountainous areas andplain areas. The deviation and correlation between CFSR precipitation data and theobservation are related to elevation and season. In general, the correlation of highaltitude mountainous area is better than that in plain area. The correlation in springand autumn is better than that in summer and winter. The deviation of high-altitudemountainous area and plain area is higher than that of middle-altitude area.Based on the results of three bias correction methods, the LOCI method cancorrect the wet day and wet rainfall intensity of the precipitation data, but it willdistort the extreme value of the precipitation change. The Gamma method can keepthe extreme value of the climate change signal, but cannot correct the wet dayfrequency and wet day precipitation intensity. The gamLOCI method synthesizes theadvantages of the LOCI and Gamma method, not only the wet-day frequency andprecipitation intensity of CFSR data could be corrected, but the extreme waspreserved. Three correction methods could equally and effectively improve thereliability of CFSR reanalysis data in plain area, while the correction effect withgamLOCI method was the best in mountainous region. Using the raw CFSR datasetas the precipitation input data of hydrological model, the simulation result of runoff istoo large, and the relative deviation is greater than 40%, and the spring flood peak getin advance and increased. Therefore, there exists obvious bias in reanalysisprecipitation datasets in Central Asia, the appropriate bias correction method has to beconsidered before applying these datasets in hydrological model of the aridmountainous area.The three bias correction methods, LOCI, Gamma and gamLOCI, have differentcharacteristics, but the results of runoff simulation show little difference. All of them can give a satisfied performance.(2)under background of global warming, the annual precipitation andtemperature in arid mountainous areas showed increasing trend, in agreement with thechange from "warm and dry" to "warm and humid‖. But the increase with months ofthe year was not consistent. Precipitation increases in both winter and summer, whilethat is not significant in spring and autumn. Temperatures is increasing all the year,but it increases faster in winter and summer, and slower in spring and autumn. Ingeneral, the volatility and uncertainty of precipitation in arid mountainous areas willincrease and precipitation will be more concentrated in the summer in the RCP8.5scenario. The distribution of precipitation in each month will be even more averagedin the RCP4.5 scenario.Affected by climate warming, the surface runoff, groundwater recharge andsnowfall will be reduced in the dry mountainous areas of Central Asia in future, whileprecipitation, actual evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration will increasesignificantly. By 2035,the runoff will increase in spring and autumn, and it willdecrease in winter and summer. The runoff during all seasons of the year will increaseby 2070. The water resources in Kaidu river basin is getting richer from 2016 to2023.The amount of annual runoff of Kaidu river basin is about 2 to 3.5 billion cubicmeters in the period from 2051 to 2070. The amount of annual runoff in RCP8.5scenario ranges between 1 and 3.5 billion cubic meters. And the annual runoff of2051-2070 in RCP4.5 scenario is around 1.5 billion cubic meters. However, thefluctuation of the water resources amount in RCP4.5 scenario is more smaller thanthat in RCP8.0 scenario.The amount of snowmelt in the high mountainous areas of Kaidu river basin,which is vulnerable to climate change, is obviously increasing. While the amount ofsnowmelt in plains and low-altitude valleys of mountains is decreasing. This isbecause the temperature increases in the basin, and the snow line rises as the result.(3) The uncertainty of the bias correction methods in the process of hydrologicalresponse simulation to climate change is the smallest, and the input data, the modelstructure and the uncertainty of the model parameters mater indeed. The uncertaintyof the input data is relatively larger in wet seasons of the year than that in dry seasons;the uncertainty of model structure is large both in dry seasons and wet seasons. Butthe uncertainty of model structure in the flood formation and uplift stage is larger thanthat in flood regression stage. |
| 学科主题 | 地图学与地理信息系统 |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/14898]  |
| 专题 | 新疆生态与地理研究所_研究系统_空间对地观测与系统模拟研究室 |
| 作者单位 | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 田霖. 气候波动下开都河流域的水文响应模拟及其不确定性分析[D]. 新疆乌鲁木齐. 中国科学院大学. 2017. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：新疆生态与地理研究所
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