Time series analysis of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome: a case study in jiaonan county, china
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Li, Shujuan1,2; Cao, Wei1; Ren, Hongyan1; Lu, Liang3; Zhuang, Dafang1; Liu, Qiyong3 |
| 刊名 | Plos one
 |
| 出版日期 | 2016-10-05 |
| 卷号 | 11期号:10页码:10 |
| ISSN号 | 1932-6203 |
| DOI | 10.1371/journal.pone.0163771 |
| 通讯作者 | Ren, hongyan(renhy@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Exact prediction of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (hfrs) epidemics must improve to establish effective preventive measures in china. a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (sarima) model was applied to establish a highly predictive model of hfrs. meteorological factors were considered external variables through a cross correlation analysis. then, these factors were included in the sarima model to determine if they could improve the predictive ability of hfrs epidemics in the region. the optimal univariate sarima model was identified as (0,0,2)(1,1,1)(12). the r-2 of the prediction of hfrs cases from january 2014 to december 2014 was 0.857, and the root mean square error (rmse) was 2.708. however, the inclusion of meteorological variables as external regressors did not significantly improve the sarima model. this result is likely because seasonal variations in meteorological variables were included in the seasonal characteristics of the hfrs itself. |
| WOS关键词 | REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA ; UNITED-STATES ; TRANSMISSION ; VARIABILITY ; MODEL |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000385697200056 |
| 出版者 | PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE |
| URI标识 | http://www.irgrid.ac.cn/handle/1471x/2374927 |
| 专题 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 通讯作者 | Ren, Hongyan |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, 11A Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, 19 Yuquan Rd, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.China CDC, Natl Inst Communicable Dis Control & Prevent, State Key Lab Infect Dis Prevent & Control, 5 Changbai Rd, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Shujuan,Cao, Wei,Ren, Hongyan,et al. Time series analysis of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome: a case study in jiaonan county, china[J]. Plos one,2016,11(10):10. |
| APA | Li, Shujuan,Cao, Wei,Ren, Hongyan,Lu, Liang,Zhuang, Dafang,&Liu, Qiyong.(2016).Time series analysis of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome: a case study in jiaonan county, china.Plos one,11(10),10. |
| MLA | Li, Shujuan,et al."Time series analysis of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome: a case study in jiaonan county, china".Plos one 11.10(2016):10. |
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来源：中国科学院大学
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