Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of china
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Yao, Fengmei; Xu, Yinglong; Lin, Erda; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Zhang, Jiahua |
| 刊名 | Climatic change
 |
| 出版日期 | 2007-02-01 |
| 卷号 | 80期号:3-4页码:395-409 |
| ISSN号 | 0165-0009 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s10584-006-9122-6 |
| 通讯作者 | Yao, fengmei(yaofm@gucas.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | This paper assesses the impact of climate change on irrigated rice yield using b2 climate change scenario from the regional climate model (rcm) and ceres-rice model during 2071--2090. eight typical rice stations ranging in latitude, longitude, and elevation that are located in the main rice ecological zones of china are selected for impact assessment. first, crop estimation through resource and environment synthesis (ceres)-rice model is validated using farm experiment data in selected stations. the simulated results represent satisfactorily the trend of flowering duration and yields. the deviation of simulation within +/- 10% of observed flowering duration and +/- 15% of observed yield. second, the errors of the outputs of rcm due to the difference of topography between station point and grid point is corrected. the corrected output of the rcm used for simulating rice flowering duration and yield is more reliable than the not corrected. without co2 direct effect on crop, the results from the assessment explore that b2 climate change scenario would have a negative impact on rice yield at most rice stations and have little impacts at fuzhou and kunming. to find the change of inter-annual rice yield, a preliminary assessment is made based on comparative cumulative probability at low and high yield and the coefficient variable of yield between the b2 scenario and baseline. without the co2 direct effect on rice yield, the result indicates that frequency for low yield would increase and it reverses for high yield, and the variance for rice yield would increase. it is concluded that high frequency at low yield and high variances of rice yield could pose a threat to rice yield at most selected stations in the main rice areas of china. with the co2 direct effect on rice yield, rice yield increase in all selected stations. |
| WOS关键词 | CHANGE SCENARIOS ; WINTER-WHEAT ; PRODUCTIVITY ; SIMULATION ; RESPONSES ; MODEL ; INDIA |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000243803300013 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGER |
| URI标识 | http://www.irgrid.ac.cn/handle/1471x/2380126 |
| 专题 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 通讯作者 | Yao, Fengmei |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Grad Univ, Coll Earth Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Agr Environm & Sustainable Dev Inst, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 3.Natl Inst Agroenvironm Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058604, Japan 4.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yao, Fengmei,Xu, Yinglong,Lin, Erda,et al. Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of china[J]. Climatic change,2007,80(3-4):395-409. |
| APA | Yao, Fengmei,Xu, Yinglong,Lin, Erda,Yokozawa, Masayuki,&Zhang, Jiahua.(2007).Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of china.Climatic change,80(3-4),395-409. |
| MLA | Yao, Fengmei,et al."Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of china".Climatic change 80.3-4(2007):395-409. |
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来源：中国科学院大学
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