Prediction of the asian-australian monsoon interannual variations with the grid-point atmospheric model of iap lasg (gamil)
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wu Zhiwei1,2; Li Jianping1 |
| 刊名 | Advances in atmospheric sciences
 |
| 出版日期 | 2008-05-01 |
| 卷号 | 25期号:3页码:387-394 |
| 关键词 | Asian-australian monsoon Interannual variation Enso Atmospheric general circulation model Gamil |
| ISSN号 | 0256-1530 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s00376-008-0387-8 |
| 通讯作者 | Li jianping(ljp@lasg.iap.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Seasonal prediction of asian-australian monsoon (a-am) precipitation is one of the most important and challenging tasks in climate prediction. in this paper, we evaluate the performance of grid atmospheric model of iap lasg (gamil) on retrospective prediction of the a-am interannual variation (iav), and determine to what extent gamil can capture the two major observed modes of a-am rainfall iav for the period 1979-2003. the first mode is associated with the turnabout of warming (cooling) in the ni (n) over tildeo 3.4 region, whereas the second mode leads the warming/cooling by about one year, signaling precursory conditions for enso. we show that the gamil one-month lead prediction of the seasonal precipitation anomalies is primarily able to capture major features of the two observed leading modes of the iav, with the first mode better predicted than the second. it also depicts the relationship between the first mode and enso rather well. on the other hand, the gamil has deficiencies in capturing the relationship between the second mode and enso. we conclude: (1) successful reproduction of the el ni (n) over tildeo-excited monsoon-ocean interaction and el ni (n) over tildeo forcing may be critical for the seasonal prediction of the a-am rainfall iav with the gamil; (2) more efforts are needed to improve the simulation not only in the ni (n) over tildeo 3.4 region but also in the joining area of asia and the indian-pacific ocean; (3) the selection of a one-tier system may improve the ultimate prediction of the a-am rainfall iav. these results offer some references for improvement of the gamil and associated seasonal prediction skill. |
| WOS关键词 | NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ; EL-NINO ; INDIAN-OCEAN ; VARIABILITY ; SIMULATIONS ; PACIFIC ; PROJECT ; CYCLE |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000255723900006 |
| 出版者 | SCIENCE PRESS |
| URI标识 | http://www.irgrid.ac.cn/handle/1471x/2384428 |
| 专题 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 通讯作者 | Li Jianping |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Grad Univ, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wu Zhiwei,Li Jianping. Prediction of the asian-australian monsoon interannual variations with the grid-point atmospheric model of iap lasg (gamil)[J]. Advances in atmospheric sciences,2008,25(3):387-394. |
| APA | Wu Zhiwei,&Li Jianping.(2008).Prediction of the asian-australian monsoon interannual variations with the grid-point atmospheric model of iap lasg (gamil).Advances in atmospheric sciences,25(3),387-394. |
| MLA | Wu Zhiwei,et al."Prediction of the asian-australian monsoon interannual variations with the grid-point atmospheric model of iap lasg (gamil)".Advances in atmospheric sciences 25.3(2008):387-394. |
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来源：中国科学院大学
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